Macpherson Morag F, Kleczkowski Adam, Healey John R, Quine Christopher P, Hanley Nick
Computing Science and Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Cottrell Building, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography, College of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2UW, UK.
Ecol Modell. 2017 Apr 24;350:87-99. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.003.
Diversification of the tree species composition of production forests is a frequently advocated strategy to increase resilience to pests and pathogens; however, there is a lack of a general framework to analyse the impact of economic and biological conditions on the optimal planting strategy in the presence of tree disease. To meet this need we use a novel bioeconomic model to quantitatively assess the effect of tree disease on the optimal planting proportion of two tree species. We find that diversifying the species composition can reduce the economic loss from disease even when the benefit from the resistant species is small. However, this key result is sensitive to a pathogen's characteristics (probability of arrival, time of arrival, rate of spread of infection) and the losses (damage of the disease to the susceptible species and reduced benefit of planting the resistant species). This study provides an exemplar framework which can be used to help understand the effect of a pathogen on forest management strategies.
生产林树种组成多样化是一种常被提倡的提高对病虫害抵御能力的策略；然而，在存在树木病害的情况下，缺乏一个通用框架来分析经济和生物条件对最优种植策略的影响。为满足这一需求，我们使用一种新颖的生物经济模型来定量评估树木病害对两种树种最优种植比例的影响。我们发现，即使抗性树种的收益很小，物种组成多样化也能减少病害造成的经济损失。然而，这一关键结果对决病原体的特征（到达概率、到达时间、感染传播速率）和损失（病害对易感物种的损害以及种植抗性树种收益的减少）很敏感。本研究提供了一个示例框架，可用于帮助理解病原体对森林管理策略的影响。
