Thompson Robin N, Cobb Richard C, Gilligan Christopher A, Cunniffe Nik J
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.
UC Davis Department of Plant Pathology, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Ecol Modell. 2016 Mar 24;324:28-32. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.014.
Plant and animal disease outbreaks have significant ecological and economic impacts. The spatial extent of control is often informed solely by administrative geography - for example, quarantine of an entire county or state once an invading disease is detected - with little regard for pathogen epidemiology. We present a stochastic model for the spread of a plant pathogen that couples spread in the natural environment and transmission via the nursery trade, and use it to illustrate that control deployed according to administrative boundaries is almost always sub-optimal. We use sudden oak death (caused by ) in mixed forests in California as motivation for our study, since the decision as to whether or not to deploy plant trade quarantine is currently undertaken on a county-by-county basis for that system. However, our key conclusion is applicable more generally: basing management of any disease entirely upon administrative borders does not balance the cost of control with the possible economic and ecological costs of further spread in the optimal fashion.
动植物疾病爆发具有重大的生态和经济影响。控制措施的空间范围往往仅由行政区划来决定——例如，一旦检测到入侵疾病，就对整个县或州进行检疫——而很少考虑病原体的流行病学情况。我们提出了一个植物病原体传播的随机模型，该模型将自然环境中的传播与通过苗圃贸易的传播结合起来，并利用它来说明根据行政边界部署的控制措施几乎总是次优的。我们以加利福尼亚州混交林中的橡树猝死病（由……引起）作为研究的动机，因为对于该系统，目前是否实施植物贸易检疫的决定是在逐个县的基础上做出的。然而，我们的关键结论具有更广泛的适用性：完全基于行政边界进行任何疾病的管理，并不能以最优方式平衡控制成本与进一步传播可能带来的经济和生态成本。
