Liu Miaomiao, Huang Yining, Jin Zhou, Ma Zongwei, Liu Xingyu, Zhang Bing, Liu Yang, Yu Yang, Wang Jinnan, Bi Jun, Kinney Patrick L
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Environ Pollut. 2017 Aug;227:15-23. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.04.049. Epub 2017 Apr 25.
The launch of China's new national urbanization plan, coupled with increasing concerns about air pollution, calls for better understandings of the nexus between urbanization and the air pollution-related health. Based on refined estimates of PM related mortality in China, we developed an Urbanization-Excess Deaths Elasticity (U-EDE) indicator to measure the marginal PM related mortality caused by urbanization. We then applied statistical models to estimate U-EDE and examined the modification effects of income on U-EDE. Urbanization in China between 2004 and 2012 led to increased PM related mortality. A 1% increase in urbanization was associated with a 0.32%, 0.14%, and 0.50% increase in PM related mortality of lung cancer, stroke, and ischemic heart disease. U-EDEs were modified by income with an inverted U curve, i.e., lower marginal impacts at the lowest and highest income levels. In addition, we projected the future U-EDE trend of China as a whole and found that China had experienced the peak of U-EDE and entered the second half of the inverted U-shaped curve. In the near future, national average U-EDE in China will decline along with the improvement of income level if no dramatic changes happen. However, the decreased U-EDE only implies that marginal PM-related mortality brought by urbanization would decrease in China. Total health damage of urbanization will keep going up in the predictable future because the U-EDE is always positive.
中国新的国家城镇化规划的出台，再加上对空气污染的日益关注，要求我们更好地理解城镇化与空气污染相关健康问题之间的关系。基于对中国与细颗粒物（PM）相关死亡率的精确估计，我们开发了一个城镇化-超额死亡弹性（U-EDE）指标，以衡量城镇化导致的与PM相关的边际死亡率。然后，我们应用统计模型来估计U-EDE，并检验收入对U-EDE的修正作用。2004年至2012年期间，中国的城镇化导致与PM相关的死亡率上升。城镇化率每上升1%，肺癌、中风和缺血性心脏病与PM相关的死亡率分别上升0.32%、0.14%和0.50%。U-EDE受收入影响呈倒U形曲线变化，即在最低和最高收入水平时边际影响较低。此外，我们预测了中国整体未来的U-EDE趋势，发现中国已经历U-EDE峰值，进入倒U形曲线的后半段。在不久的将来，如果没有重大变化，随着收入水平的提高，中国全国平均U-EDE将下降。然而，U-EDE的下降仅意味着城镇化带来的与PM相关的边际死亡率在中国将降低。在可预见的未来，城镇化造成的总体健康损害将持续上升，因为U-EDE始终为正。
