Risk Factors for Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness Hospitalization in South Africa, 2012-2015.

BACKGROUND

Data on risk factors for influenza-associated hospitalizations in low- and middle-income countries are limited.

METHODS

We conducted active syndromic surveillance for hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) in 2 provinces of South Africa during 2012-2015. We compared the characteristics of influenza-positive patients with SARI to those with ILI to identify factors associated with severe disease requiring hospitalization, using unconditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

During the study period, influenza virus was detected in 5.9% (110 of 1861) and 15.8% (577 of 3652) of SARI and ILI cases, respectively. On multivariable analysis factors significantly associated with increased risk of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization were as follows: younger and older age (<6 months [adjusted odds ratio {aOR}, 37.6], 6-11 months [aOR, 31.9], 12-23 months [aOR, 22.1], 24-59 months [aOR, 7.1], and ≥65 years [aOR, 40.7] compared with 5-24 years of age), underlying medical conditions (aOR, 4.5), human immunodeficiency virus infection (aOR, 4.3), and colonization density ≥1000 deoxyribonucleic acid copies/mL (aOR, 4.8). Underlying medical conditions in children aged <5 years included asthma (aOR, 22.7), malnutrition (aOR, 2.4), and prematurity (aOR, 4.8); in persons aged ≥5 years, conditions included asthma (aOR, 3.6), diabetes (aOR, 7.1), chronic lung diseases (aOR, 10.7), chronic heart diseases (aOR, 9.6), and obesity (aOR, 21.3). Mine workers (aOR, 13.8) and pregnant women (aOR, 12.5) were also at increased risk for influenza-associated hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk groups identified in this study may benefit most from annual influenza immunization, and children <6 months of age may be protected through vaccination of their mothers during pregnancy.