Stud Fam Plann. 2017 Sep;48(3):223-233. doi: 10.1111/sifp.12025. Epub 2017 May 18.
In 2015, governments adopted 17 internationally agreed goals to ensure progress and well-being in the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. These new goals present a challenge for countries to set empirical targets that are ambitious yet achievable and that can account for different starting points and rates of progress. We used probabilistic projections of family planning indicators, based on a global data set and Bayesian hierarchical modeling, to generate illustrative targets at the country level. Targets were defined as the percentage of demand for family planning satisfied with modern contraceptive methods where a country has at least a 10 percent chance of reaching the target by 2030. National targets for 2030 ranged from below 50 percent of demand satisfied with modern contraceptives (for three countries in Africa) to above 90 percent (for 41 countries from all major areas of the world). The probabilistic approach also identified countries for which a global fixed target value of 75 percent demand satisfied was either unambitious or has little chance of achievement. We present the web-based Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) enabling national decision makers to compute and assess targets for meeting family planning demand.
2015 年，各国政府通过了 17 项国际商定目标，以确保在经济、社会和环境可持续发展层面取得进展和福祉。这些新目标对各国提出了挑战，要求它们制定具有雄心但又可实现的经验目标，并考虑到不同的起点和进展速度。我们利用基于全球数据集和贝叶斯层次建模的计划生育指标概率预测，在国家层面生成说明性目标。目标定义为满足现代避孕方法需求的计划生育需求的百分比，其中一个国家在 2030 年至少有 10%的机会达到目标。2030 年的国家目标从现代避孕方法需求满足率低于 50%（非洲三个国家）到高于 90%（来自世界各大地区的 41 个国家）不等。概率方法还确定了一些国家，对于这些国家，全球固定目标值 75%的需求满足率要么没有雄心，要么实现的机会很小。我们展示了基于网络的计划生育估计工具（FPET），使国家决策者能够计算和评估满足计划生育需求的目标。
