Biddlecom Ann, Sully Elizabeth A, Kantorová Vladimíra, Wheldon Mark C, Lince-Deroche Naomi, Riley Taylor
Independent researcher, New York, NY USA.
Guttmacher Institute, New York, NY USA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2023;42(1):13. doi: 10.1007/s11113-023-09766-2. Epub 2023 Feb 10.
Broad and aspirational targets to meet health service needs are useful for advocacy, but setting measurable, time-defined targets for accelerated yet feasible progress is necessary for national monitoring and planning purposes. Information from probabilistic projections of health outcomes and service coverage can be used to set country-specific targets that reflect different starting points and rates of change. We show the utility of this approach in an application to contraceptive coverage in 131 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and the related cost and impact of different coverage scenarios. We use the sustainable development goal (SDG) indicator of the proportion of women who have their need for family planning satisfied with modern contraception. The results show that accelerated progress targets would collectively result in 83% of the need satisfied in 2030 for LMICs, which is 5% points higher than the projected level based on the current pace of progress. This translated into 41 million fewer women with an unmet need for modern methods and 14 million fewer unintended pregnancies. Annual direct costs would be $480 million more in 2030 to support contraceptive services compared with costs in 2030 based on the current pace of progress. As governments plan and budget for expanded health service coverage, information from probabilistic projections can guide them in setting measurable, ambitious yet realistic targets that are relevant to their particular contexts.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09766-2.
设定宽泛且宏伟的目标以满足卫生服务需求对宣传工作有用，但为实现加速且可行的进展设定可衡量、有时间限定的目标对于国家监测和规划目的而言是必要的。来自健康结果和服务覆盖概率预测的信息可用于设定反映不同起点和变化率的国别特定目标。我们展示了这种方法在应用于131个低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs）的避孕覆盖率以及不同覆盖情景的相关成本和影响方面的效用。我们使用可持续发展目标（SDG）指标，即有计划生育需求的女性中使用现代避孕方法满足需求的比例。结果表明，加速进展目标将使低收入和中等收入国家在2030年总体上有83%的需求得到满足，这比基于当前进展速度的预测水平高出5个百分点。这意味着未满足现代避孕方法需求的女性减少4100万，意外怀孕减少1400万。与基于当前进展速度的2030年成本相比，2030年为支持避孕服务的年度直接成本将多出4.8亿美元。随着各国政府为扩大卫生服务覆盖进行规划和预算，概率预测的信息可指导它们设定与特定背景相关的可衡量、宏伟但现实的目标。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11113 - 023 - 09766 - 2获取的补充材料。
