Bonicelli Andrea, Xhemali Bledar, Kranioti Elena F, Zioupos Peter
Edinburgh Unit for Forensic Anthropology, School of History Classics and Archaeology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Musculoskeletal & Medicolegal Research Group, Cranfield Forensic Institute, Defence Academy of the UK, Shrivenham, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2017 May 17;12(5):e0176785. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176785. eCollection 2017.
Age estimation remains one of the most challenging tasks in forensic practice when establishing a biological profile of unknown skeletonised remains. Morphological methods based on developmental markers of bones can provide accurate age estimates at a young age, but become highly unreliable for ages over 35 when all developmental markers disappear. This study explores the changes in the biomechanical properties of bone tissue and matrix, which continue to change with age even after skeletal maturity, and their potential value for age estimation. As a proof of concept we investigated the relationship of 28 variables at the macroscopic and microscopic level in rib autopsy samples from 24 individuals. Stepwise regression analysis produced a number of equations one of which with seven variables showed an R2 = 0.949; a mean residual error of 2.13 yrs ±0.4 (SD) and a maximum residual error value of 2.88 yrs. For forensic purposes, by using only bench top machines in tests which can be carried out within 36 hrs, a set of just 3 variables produced an equation with an R2 = 0.902 a mean residual error of 3.38 yrs ±2.6 (SD) and a maximum observed residual error 9.26yrs. This method outstrips all existing age-at-death methods based on ribs, thus providing a novel lab based accurate tool in the forensic investigation of human remains. The present application is optimised for fresh (uncompromised by taphonomic conditions) remains, but the potential of the principle and method is vast once the trends of the biomechanical variables are established for other environmental conditions and circumstances.
在为身份不明的白骨化遗骸建立生物特征档案时，年龄估算仍是法医实践中最具挑战性的任务之一。基于骨骼发育标志的形态学方法在估算青少年年龄时可提供准确结果，但当年龄超过35岁时，由于所有发育标志均已消失，该方法就变得极不可靠。本研究探讨了骨组织和基质生物力学特性的变化，这些变化在骨骼成熟后仍会随着年龄继续改变，以及它们在年龄估算方面的潜在价值。作为概念验证，我们研究了24名个体肋骨尸检样本在宏观和微观层面上28个变量之间的关系。逐步回归分析得出了多个方程，其中一个包含七个变量的方程显示R2 = 0.949；平均残差为2.13岁±0.4（标准差），最大残差值为2.88岁。出于法医目的，仅使用台式机器进行测试，且测试可在36小时内完成，仅一组3个变量就得出了一个方程，其R2 = 0.902，平均残差为3.38岁±2.6（标准差），最大观察到的残差为9.26岁。该方法超越了所有现有的基于肋骨的死亡年龄推断方法，从而为人类遗骸的法医调查提供了一种新型的、基于实验室的准确工具。本应用针对新鲜（未受埋藏学条件影响）遗骸进行了优化，但一旦确定了生物力学变量在其他环境条件和情况下的变化趋势，该原理和方法的潜力将是巨大的。
