Department of Health Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.
Department of Health Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA; Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.
Patient Educ Couns. 2017 Oct;100(10):1882-1889. doi: 10.1016/j.pec.2017.04.016. Epub 2017 Apr 26.
To determine whether the use of simulated experiences to communicate statistical information can improve an individual's understanding of conditional probabilities-specifically the positive predictive value (PPV) of prenatal screening tests for Down syndrome.
In Experiment 1 (N=64) and Experiment 2 (N=180) participants were asked to estimate the PPV of a prenatal screening test for Down syndrome based on either (1) explicit statistics regarding the prevalence of Down syndrome and the sensitivity and specificity of a prenatal screening test for Down syndrome, or (2) experiencing up to 5000 simulated test results over a short time.
Participants' estimates of the PPV were more accurate when they had learned via simulated experiences (79% accuracy) compared with estimates based on explicitly described statistics (14%). Participants in the simulated experience condition also reported decreased interest in screening and decreased concern with a positive test result.
Simulated experiences improve PPV estimates, compared to estimates derived from explicitly provided statistics, while also shifting attitudes away from screening.
The use of simulated experiences may prove to be simple but powerful tool to communicate complex statistical information to patients in medical decision making situations.
确定使用模拟体验来传达统计信息是否可以提高个体对条件概率的理解——具体来说，是对唐氏综合征产前筛查试验阳性预测值（PPV）的理解。
在实验 1（N=64）和实验 2（N=180）中，参与者被要求根据以下两种方法之一来估计唐氏综合征产前筛查试验的 PPV：（1）关于唐氏综合征的流行率以及唐氏综合征产前筛查试验的灵敏度和特异性的明确统计数据，或（2）在短时间内体验多达 5000 次模拟测试结果。
与基于明确描述的统计数据的估计（14%）相比，参与者通过模拟体验（79%的准确性）获得的 PPV 估计更准确。在模拟体验条件下的参与者还报告说对筛查的兴趣降低，对阳性测试结果的担忧也降低。
与从明确提供的统计数据中得出的估计相比，模拟体验可以提高 PPV 的估计值，同时也使态度从筛查中转移。
使用模拟体验可能被证明是一种简单但强大的工具，可以在医疗决策情况下向患者传达复杂的统计信息。
