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体验统计信息能提高儿童和成人的推理能力。

Experiencing statistical information improves children's and adults' inferences.

机构信息

Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany.

出版信息

Psychon Bull Rev. 2022 Dec;29(6):2302-2313. doi: 10.3758/s13423-022-02075-3. Epub 2022 Jun 1.

Abstract

How good are people's statistical intuitions? Recent research has highlighted that sequential experience of statistical information improves adults' statistical intuitions relative to situations where this information is described. Yet little is known about whether this is also the case for children's statistical intuitions. In a study with 100 children (8-11 years old) and 100 adults (19-35 years old), we found that sequentially experiencing statistical information improved both adults' and children's inferences in two paradigmatic reasoning problems: conjunction and Bayesian reasoning problems. Moreover, adults' statistical competencies when they learned statistical information through description were surpassed by children's inferences when they learned through experience. We conclude that experience of statistical information plays a key role in shaping children's reasoning under uncertainty-a conclusion that has important implications for education policy.

摘要

人们的统计直觉有多好?最近的研究强调,与仅描述统计信息相比,人们对统计信息的顺序体验会提高其统计直觉。然而,对于儿童的统计直觉是否也是如此,目前还知之甚少。在一项涉及 100 名儿童(8-11 岁)和 100 名成年人(19-35 岁)的研究中,我们发现,顺序体验统计信息可以改善两种典型推理问题中成年人和儿童的推断:合取和贝叶斯推理问题。此外,当成年人通过描述学习统计信息时,他们的统计能力被儿童通过经验学习的推断所超越。我们的结论是,统计信息的体验在塑造儿童在不确定情况下的推理方面起着关键作用——这一结论对教育政策具有重要意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2ca0/9722856/52bd2872cd06/13423_2022_2075_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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