Chesson Peter
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America.
Department of Life Sciences and Research Center for Global Change Biology, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan.
PLoS Biol. 2017 May 30;15(5):e2002634. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2002634. eCollection 2017 May.
The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.
平衡这一重要概念在生态学中一直存在争议，但一个新的、更具普遍性的概念，即渐近环境决定轨迹（AEDT），通过切实纳入长期气候变化，同时保留稳定平衡的大部分预测能力，克服了许多与平衡相关的问题。预计一个种群或生态群落会趋近于其AEDT，AEDT是反映环境历史和生物学特征的时间函数。AEDT引发了人们熟悉的问题和预测，但却是在一个更现实的背景下，在这个背景中，考虑过去的环境以及由于人类影响而将发生深刻变化的未来成为可能。预计在种群遗传学、进化、地球科学和经济学领域也会有强大的应用。
