Terry-McElrath Yvonne M, O'Malley Patrick M, Patrick Megan E, Miech Richard A
Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson St., Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248, USA.
Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson St., Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248, USA.
Addict Behav. 2017 Nov;74:13-19. doi: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2017.05.026. Epub 2017 May 23.
Perceived risk of harm has long been a key preventive factor for adolescent marijuana use. However, in recent years, perceived risk has decreased markedly and marijuana use has increased only slightly, leading to new questions about their association. This study investigates the magnitude and stability of the US adolescent marijuana risk/use association from 1991 to 2016, overall and by gender and race/ethnicity.
Self-reported data on past 12-month marijuana use, perceived risk of regular marijuana use, gender, and race/ethnicity were obtained from 275,768 US 12th grade students participating in the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. Time-varying effect modeling (TVEM) was used to examine the marijuana risk/use association over time.
Both before and after controlling for gender and race/ethnicity, perceived risk was a strong protective factor against adolescent marijuana use. The magnitude of the great risk/use association strengthened for Hispanic students; remained generally stable over time for 12th graders overall, males, females, and White students; and weakened for Black students. The magnitude of the moderate risk/use association strengthened for 12th graders overall, males, females, White and Hispanic students, but did not continue to strengthen for Black students from 2005 onwards. In general, marijuana use prevalence decreased over time within all levels of perceived risk.
Perceived risk remains a strong protective factor for adolescent marijuana use, and the protective association for moderate risk (vs. no/slight risk) is actually increasing over time. Results suggest that accurate and credible information on the risks associated with marijuana use should remain a key component of prevention efforts.
长期以来，感知到的伤害风险一直是青少年使用大麻的关键预防因素。然而，近年来，感知到的风险显著下降，而大麻使用仅略有增加，这引发了关于它们之间关联的新问题。本研究调查了1991年至2016年美国青少年大麻风险/使用关联的程度和稳定性，包括总体情况以及按性别和种族/族裔划分的情况。
从参与具有全国代表性的“未来监测”研究的275,768名美国12年级学生中获取了关于过去12个月大麻使用情况、定期使用大麻的感知风险、性别和种族/族裔的自我报告数据。采用时变效应模型（TVEM）来检验大麻风险/使用关联随时间的变化。
在控制性别和种族/族裔之前和之后，感知风险都是预防青少年使用大麻的有力保护因素。对于西班牙裔学生，高风险/使用关联的程度增强；对于12年级学生总体、男性、女性和白人学生，随着时间推移该关联总体保持稳定；而对于黑人学生，该关联则减弱。对于12年级学生总体、男性、女性、白人和西班牙裔学生，中度风险/使用关联的程度增强，但从2005年起，黑人学生的这一关联并未继续增强。总体而言，在所有感知风险水平下，大麻使用流行率随时间下降。
感知风险仍然是青少年使用大麻的有力保护因素，并且随着时间推移，中度风险（相对于无/轻微风险）的保护关联实际上在增强。结果表明，关于大麻使用相关风险的准确且可信的信息应仍然是预防工作的关键组成部分。
