Colin Fuller Consultancy Ltd, Main Street, Sutton Bonington, LE12 5PE, UK.
Sports Med. 2017 Dec;47(12):2641-2651. doi: 10.1007/s40279-017-0746-7.
Injuries in team sports are normally characterised by the incidence, severity, and location and type of injuries sustained: these measures, however, do not provide an insight into the variable injury-burden experienced during a season. Injury burden varies according to the team's match and training loads, the rate at which injuries are sustained and the time taken for these injuries to resolve. At the present time, this time-based variation of injury burden has not been modelled.
To develop a kinetic model describing the time-based injury burden experienced by teams in elite team sports and to demonstrate the model's utility.
Rates of injury were quantified using a large eight-season database of rugby injuries (5253) and exposure (60,085 player-match-hours) in English professional rugby. Rates of recovery from injury were quantified using time-to-recovery analysis of the injuries.
The kinetic model proposed for predicting a team's time-based injury burden is based on a composite rate equation developed from the incidence of injury, a first-order rate of recovery from injury and the team's playing load. The utility of the model was demonstrated by examining common scenarios encountered in elite rugby.
The kinetic model developed describes and predicts the variable injury-burden arising from match play during a season of rugby union based on the incidence of match injuries, the rate of recovery from injury and the playing load. The model is equally applicable to other team sports and other scenarios.
团队运动中的损伤通常以损伤的发生率、严重程度、部位和类型为特征：然而，这些措施并不能深入了解一个赛季中不同的损伤负担。损伤负担取决于球队的比赛和训练负荷、损伤的发生率以及这些损伤的恢复时间。目前，这种基于时间的损伤负担变化尚未建模。
开发一种描述精英团队运动中球队基于时间的损伤负担的运动学模型，并展示该模型的实用性。
使用英国职业橄榄球的一个包含 8 个赛季的大量橄榄球损伤（5253 例）和暴露（60085 名球员-比赛-小时）的数据库，使用损伤率定量分析来量化损伤率。使用损伤恢复的时间分析来量化损伤的恢复率。
所提出的用于预测球队基于时间的损伤负担的运动学模型是基于从损伤发生率、损伤恢复的一阶速率和球队比赛负荷中开发的复合速率方程。该模型的实用性通过检查精英橄榄球中常见的情况来证明。
所开发的运动学模型基于比赛损伤的发生率、损伤恢复的速率和比赛负荷，描述和预测了橄榄球赛季中比赛产生的可变损伤负担。该模型同样适用于其他团队运动和其他情况。
