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贸易开放度是否会影响碳排放:来自十个新兴工业化国家的证据?

Does trade openness affect CO emissions: evidence from ten newly industrialized countries?

作者信息

Zhang Shun, Liu Xuyi, Bae Junghan

机构信息

School of International Economics and Business, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-Ro, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk, South Korea.

School of Business, Luoyang Normal University, 6# Jiqing RD, Luoyang City, Henan, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2017 Jul;24(21):17616-17625. doi: 10.1007/s11356-017-9392-8. Epub 2017 Jun 9.

Abstract

This paper examines whether the hypothetical environmental Kuznet curve (EKC) exists or not and investigates how trade openness affects CO emissions, together with real GDP and total primary energy consumption. The study sample comprises ten newly industrialized countries (NICs-10) from 1971 to 2013. The results support the existence of hypothetical EKC and indicate that trade openness negatively and significantly affects emissions, while real GDP and energy do positive effects of emissions. Moreover, the empirical results of short-run causalities indicate feedback hypothetical linkage of real GDP and trade, unidirectional linkages from energy to emissions, and from trade to energy. The error correction terms (ECTs) reveal in the long run, feedback linkages of emissions, real GDP, and trade openness, while energy Granger causes emissions, real GDP, and trade, respectively. The study recommendations are that our policymakers should encourage and expand the trade openness in these countries, not only to restrain CO emissions but also to boost their growth.

摘要

本文考察了假设的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)是否存在,并研究了贸易开放度如何影响碳排放,同时考虑了实际国内生产总值和一次能源消费总量。研究样本包括1971年至2013年的十个新兴工业化国家(NICs - 10)。结果支持假设的EKC的存在,并表明贸易开放度对排放有显著的负面影响,而实际国内生产总值和能源对排放有正面影响。此外,短期因果关系的实证结果表明实际国内生产总值与贸易之间存在反馈假设联系,能源到排放、贸易到能源存在单向联系。误差修正项(ECTs)表明,从长期来看,排放、实际国内生产总值和贸易开放度之间存在反馈联系,而能源分别是排放、实际国内生产总值和贸易的格兰杰原因。研究建议是,我们的政策制定者应鼓励并扩大这些国家的贸易开放度,不仅要抑制碳排放,还要促进其经济增长。

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