Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Mar;26(9):9099-9112. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04342-8. Epub 2019 Feb 4.
The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between CO emissions and its possible determinants and their direction of causality for Pakistan over the period of 1972 to 2017. The survey of literature guides us that the most frequently discussed factors are real GDP per capita, energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, and financial development. Testing of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is the most common in environment literature so we also incorporated the real GDP per capita squared term in the model. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration with structural break and error correction method (ECM) are applied to the selected time series to investigate the long-run relationship between CO emissions and real GDP per capita, real GDP per capita squared term, energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, and financial development. The empirical evidence confirms the cointegration among the variables and EKC holds for Pakistan support H1 of the study, which though contradictory to the previous studies conducted on Pakistan but all of previous work faces the exclusion bias and their findings were skewed. The findings also suggest that energy consumption and urbanization have a positive effect on CO emissions, supporting H2 and H3. However, H4 and H5 rejected as trade openness and financial development found positively significant. Moreover, bidirectional Granger causality was exists only between CO emissions and trade openness. The findings suggests that Pakistan need to settle the economic agenda of the nation through the resolution of economic controversies, energy mix need to tilt toward clean and renewable energy, and rural-urban migration need to manage for better air, water, and living.
本文旨在考察 1972 年至 2017 年期间，巴基斯坦 CO2 排放及其可能的决定因素及其因果关系的方向。文献综述表明，最常讨论的因素是人均实际 GDP、能源消耗、城市化、贸易开放度和金融发展。环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说的检验在环境文献中最为常见，因此我们也在模型中纳入了人均实际 GDP 的平方项。自回归分布滞后（ARDL）协整检验方法与结构断点和误差修正模型（ECM）相结合，用于所选时间序列，以研究 CO2 排放与人均实际 GDP、人均实际 GDP 的平方项、能源消耗、城市化、贸易开放度和金融发展之间的长期关系。实证证据证实了变量之间的协整关系，EKC 适用于巴基斯坦，支持研究的 H1，尽管与之前对巴基斯坦进行的研究相矛盾，但之前所有的工作都面临着排除偏差，其发现存在偏差。研究结果还表明，能源消耗和城市化对 CO2 排放有正向影响，支持 H2 和 H3。然而，H4 和 H5 被拒绝，因为贸易开放度和金融发展被发现具有显著的正向影响。此外，仅在 CO2 排放和贸易开放度之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。研究结果表明，巴基斯坦需要通过解决经济争议来解决国家的经济议程，能源组合需要向清洁和可再生能源倾斜，农村-城市移民需要管理以获得更好的空气、水和生活。
