Department of Anthropology, Hirszfeld Institute of Immunology and Experimental Therapy, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wrocław, Poland.
Department of Kinesiology and Health Education, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA.
Sports Med. 2018 Jan;48(1):221-236. doi: 10.1007/s40279-017-0750-y.
Predicted maturity offset and age at peak height velocity are increasingly used with youth athletes, although validation studies of the equations indicated major limitations. The equations have since been modified and simplified.
The objective of this study was to validate the new maturity offset prediction equations in independent longitudinal samples of boys and girls.
Two new equations for boys with chronological age and sitting height and chronological age and stature as predictors, and one equation for girls with chronological age and stature as predictors were evaluated in serial data from the Wrocław Growth Study, 193 boys (aged 8-18 years) and 198 girls (aged 8-16 years). Observed age at peak height velocity for each youth was estimated with the Preece-Baines Model 1. The original prediction equations were included for comparison. Predicted age at peak height velocity was the difference between chronological age at prediction and maturity offset.
Predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new equations approximated observed ages at peak height velocity in average maturing boys near the time of peak height velocity; a corresponding window for average maturing girls was not apparent. Compared with observed age at peak height velocity, predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new and original equations were consistently later in early maturing youth and earlier in late maturing youth of both sexes. Predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new equations had reduced variation compared with the original equations and especially observed ages at peak height velocity. Intra-individual variation in predicted ages at peak height velocity with all equations was considerable.
The new equations are useful for average maturing boys close to the time of peak height velocity; there does not appear to be a clear window for average maturing girls. The new and original equations have major limitations with early and late maturing boys and girls.
预测成熟度偏移和身高生长高峰年龄越来越多地被用于青少年运动员，但这些方程的验证研究表明存在重大局限性。此后，这些方程得到了修改和简化。
本研究的目的是在男孩和女孩的独立纵向样本中验证新的成熟度偏移预测方程。
在华沙生长研究的序列数据中，评估了两个新的男孩方程，分别使用年龄和坐高、年龄和身高作为预测因子，以及一个女孩方程，使用年龄和身高作为预测因子。每个青少年的实际身高生长高峰年龄通过 Preece-Baines Model 1 进行估计。同时纳入原始预测方程进行比较。预测的身高生长高峰年龄是预测时的年龄和成熟度偏移之间的差异。
在接近身高生长高峰年龄的平均成熟男孩中，新方程预测的身高生长高峰年龄接近观察到的身高生长高峰年龄；而对于平均成熟的女孩，没有明显的类似窗口。与观察到的身高生长高峰年龄相比，新方程和原始方程预测的身高生长高峰年龄在早期成熟的青少年中较晚，在两性晚期成熟的青少年中较早。与原始方程相比，新方程预测的身高生长高峰年龄的变化较小，特别是与观察到的身高生长高峰年龄相比。所有方程预测的身高生长高峰年龄的个体内变异都相当大。
新方程对于接近身高生长高峰年龄的平均成熟男孩有用；对于平均成熟的女孩，似乎没有明确的窗口。新方程和原始方程对于早期和晚期成熟的男孩和女孩都有很大的局限性。
