Flores Luis Alberto, McLaren-Towlson Christopher, De León Lidia G, Bonito Fabiana, Mil-Homens Pedro, Peña-González Iván, Fragoso Maria Isabel
Faculty of Physical Culture Sciences, Autonomous University of Chihuahua, Chihuahua, Mexico.
University of Hull, Hull, UK.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 25;15(1):18239. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-00402-x.
This study focus is to develop a new model to estimate skeletal age (SA) as a function of the state of biological maturation in male soccer players, and to propose cut-off points to classify the state of biological maturation based on the percentage of adult height (PAH). SA was determined in 747 Portuguese male soccer players, using the Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) 3 method, and PAH was predicted by TW3 (P-TW3) and Khamis-Roche (P-KR) methods. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity of the P-TW3 were estimated to classify late, on-time and early maturers to obtain cut-off points, by age; and to develop specific equations for each maturation stage. Both the model using P-TW3 and the model using P-KR showed a SA predictive capacity of 93%. The average differences were similar to zero. P-TW3 cutoff points were established by ROC curve analysis to identify late and early maturers according to their SA. Following, predictive models were developed to estimate SA according to maturity status. The predictive capacity of the models was 87.3% in late maturers, 92.3% in on-time maturers and 93.5% in early maturers. The prediction models are a reliable and cost-effective method to estimate SA in male soccer players.
本研究的重点是开发一种新模型，以根据男性足球运动员的生物成熟状态来估计骨骼年龄（SA），并提出基于成年身高百分比（PAH）对生物成熟状态进行分类的临界点。使用坦纳 - 怀特豪斯（TW）3法对747名葡萄牙男性足球运动员测定SA，并通过TW3（P - TW3）和卡米斯 - 罗氏（P - KR）法预测PAH。随后，估计P - TW3对晚熟、适时成熟和早熟者进行分类以获得按年龄划分的临界点的敏感性和特异性；并为每个成熟阶段建立特定方程。使用P - TW3的模型和使用P - KR的模型均显示出93%的SA预测能力。平均差异接近于零。通过ROC曲线分析确定P - TW3临界点，以根据SA识别晚熟和早熟者。随后，开发预测模型以根据成熟状态估计SA。这些模型在晚熟者中的预测能力为87.3%，在适时成熟者中为92.3%，在早熟者中为93.5%。这些预测模型是估计男性足球运动员SA的一种可靠且具有成本效益的方法。
