Sloan Frank, Eldred Lindsey, McCutchan Sabrina, Platt Alyssa
Department of Economics, Duke University, 213 Social Sciences Building, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Global Health Institute and Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, 310 Trent Drive, Hall, Durham, NC 27710 USA.
South Econ J. 2016 Oct;83(2):416-436. doi: 10.1002/soej.12159. Epub 2016 Oct 24.
This study assesses why some individuals are re-arrested for driving while intoxicated (DWI). Using longitudinal data from North Carolina containing information on arrests and arrest outcomes, we test hypotheses that individuals prosecuted and convicted of DWI are less likely to be re-arrested for DWI. We allow for possible endogeneity of prosecution and conviction outcomes by using instrumental variables for the prosecutor's prosecution rate and the judge's conviction rate. With a three-year follow-up, the probability of DWI re-arrest was reduced by 6.6 percent if the person was prosecuted for DWI and, for those prosecuted, by 24.5 percent if convicted on this charge. Prosecution and conviction for DWI deters re-arrest for DWI.
本研究评估了为何一些人会因醉酒驾驶（DWI）而再次被捕。利用北卡罗来纳州的纵向数据，其中包含逮捕及逮捕结果的信息，我们检验了以下假设：因DWI被起诉并定罪的个人再次因DWI被捕的可能性较小。我们通过使用检察官起诉率和法官定罪率的工具变量来考虑起诉和定罪结果可能存在的内生性。经过三年的随访，如果某人因DWI被起诉，DWI再次被捕的概率降低了6.6%；而对于那些被起诉的人，如果因这项指控被定罪，再次被捕的概率则降低了24.5%。对DWI的起诉和定罪可威慑DWI再次被捕。
