Ahlin Eileen M, Zador Paul L, Rauch William J, Howard Jan M, Duncan G Doug
Westat, 1600 Research Boulevard, Rockville, MD 20850, USA.
J Crim Justice. 2011 Mar;39(2):137-142. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2011.01.001.
Research demonstrates that punitive approaches to DWI employed by the judiciary have failed to significantly reduce recidivism. However, little is known about the deterrent effects of administrative and diversion sanctions. We examine whether such sanctions deter first-time DWI offenders. METHODS: We grouped combinations of administrative, judicial, and diversion sanctions routinely employed in the state of Maryland for processing drivers arrested for DWI into one of eight mutually exclusive disposition sequences. We applied this classification to Maryland drivers who had been licensed in the state and had precisely one DWI on their record prior to January 1, 1999. We then used a proportional hazards model to estimate the probability of remaining free of a new DWI during a 6-year period (January 1, 1999 - December 31, 2004) as a function of the disposition of the index violation, and of selected factors that could affect that probability. RESULTS: Drivers with a prior DWI were at relatively high risk of recidivating regardless of how they were sanctioned. Those who received administrative and alternative sanctions had a risk of recidivating similar to that of drivers who were convicted. CONCLUSION: All dispositions sequences, not just convictions, indicate that first-time DWI offenders are at high risk of recidivating.
研究表明,司法部门对酒后驾车(DWI)采取的惩罚性措施未能显著降低累犯率。然而,对于行政制裁和分流制裁的威慑效果知之甚少。我们研究此类制裁措施是否能威慑初次酒后驾车的罪犯。方法:我们将马里兰州处理因酒后驾车被捕司机时常规采用的行政、司法和分流制裁措施组合,分为八个相互排斥的处置序列之一。我们将这种分类应用于1999年1月1日前在该州持有驾照且记录中仅有一次酒后驾车的马里兰州司机。然后,我们使用比例风险模型来估计在6年期间(1999年1月1日至2004年12月31日)不再发生新的酒后驾车行为的概率,该概率是索引违规处置方式以及可能影响该概率的选定因素的函数。结果:无论受到何种制裁,有过酒后驾车前科的司机再次犯罪的风险相对较高。那些受到行政制裁和替代制裁的司机再次犯罪的风险与被定罪的司机相似。结论:所有处置序列,而不仅仅是定罪,都表明初次酒后驾车的罪犯再次犯罪的风险很高。