McDonagh R, Harbison J
Mercer's Institute, St James's Hospital, James's St, Dublin 8.
Ir Med J. 2016 Dec 12;109(10):479.
Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland's oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autumns.
脑血管疾病的死亡率在冬季会上升，但原因尚不清楚。爱尔兰的海洋性气候意味着它很少经历极端天气。我们研究了天气模式与爱尔兰中风死亡率之间的关系。利用爱尔兰气象局的官方数据，收集了秋季（9月至11月）和冬季（12月至2月）的日照（平均百分比）、降雨量（平均百分比）和温度（高于平均温度的摄氏度）的季节性数据。国家脑血管死亡率数据来自季度生命统计。通过用随后第一季度的数据减去（最低点）第三季度的死亡率数据来计算冬季超额死亡人数。分析了2002年至2014年这12年的数据。冬季平均死亡率超额为24.7%。冬季死亡率与温度相关（r = 0.60，p = 0.04）。冬季死亡率的上升与前一个秋季的天气密切相关（降雨量：r = -0.19，p = 0.53；温度：r = -0.60，p = 0.03；日照：r = 0.58，p = 0.04）。凉爽、阳光充足的秋季过后，冬季脑血管疾病死亡率似乎更高。
