Nistal-Nuño Beatriz
a Emergency Medicine Department , Stanford University Medical Center , Palo Alto , CA , USA.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2018 Jun;25(2):128-133. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2017.1341937. Epub 2017 Jul 4.
In the past 16 years, a variety of factors might have impacted traffic accidents in Chile. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in traffic morbi-mortality. Overall death and injury rates and associated to alcohol per 100,000 inhabitants were monitored between 2000 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percent changes (APCs) and average APCs. Permutation tests were used to determine joinpoints. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The rate of traffic deaths related to alcohol declined from 2006 until 2015 at a rate of 9.53% per year. The rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol decreased at a rate of 4.32% per year since 2008 to 2015. The use of the most sensitive approach to trend analysis brings new ele-ments to form the epidemiological analyses in Chile and similar countries.
在过去16年里，多种因素可能影响了智利的交通事故。为了识别和量化随时间变化的差异变化率，本研究采用了一种新颖的分析方法来评估交通伤病死亡率的时间趋势。在2000年至2015年期间，监测了每10万居民的总体死亡和受伤率以及与酒精相关的比率。采用连接点回归来计算年度百分比变化（APC）和平均APC。使用排列检验来确定连接点。P < 0.05被认为具有统计学意义。与酒精相关的交通死亡人数从2006年到2015年以每年9.53%的速度下降。自2008年至2015年，与酒精相关的交通受伤率以每年4.32%的速度下降。使用最敏感的趋势分析方法为智利和类似国家的流行病学分析带来了新的元素。
