1 Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences , Isfahan, Iran .
2 Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore , Singapore, Singapore .
Metab Syndr Relat Disord. 2017 Sep;15(7):354-362. doi: 10.1089/met.2016.0156. Epub 2017 Jul 5.
To identify the associated risk factors with development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a longitudinal prospective cohort study in an Iranian population.
A total of 1994 participants, aged ≥35 years, free of MetS, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed up for 7 years. Physical examination, laboratory studies, and interview about lifestyle factors were performed, and MetS was defined based on harmonized definition at both time points. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).
MetS occurred in 27% of subjects with an incidence rate of 39.2 and 46.6 per 1000 person-year in men and women, respectively (P = 0.04). Among the components of MetS, triglyceride (TG) alone (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.78-3.78) or in combination with waist circumference (WC; OR 5.01, 95% CI 3.59-7.01) was the strongest predictor of incident MetS compared to those free of components. In multivariable analysis, all components were associated with higher risk except fasting plasma glucose in both genders and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in men. Impaired glucose tolerance was associated with two (95% CI 1.11-3.65) times increased risk in women. The multivariable adjusted OR (95% CI) of overweight and obesity was 1.68 (1.13-2.50) and 2.88 (1.73-4.78) in women and 2.46 (1.74-3.46) and 2.47 (1.38-4.43) in men, respectively. Unhealthy diet [1.57 (1.02-2.41)] and weekly Cola consumption [1.50 (1.05, 2.14)] increased the risk in women only.
TG and WC components showed the highest predictive values for MetS incidence, while general obesity was independently associated with it.
在伊朗人群的一项纵向前瞻性队列研究中，确定与代谢综合征（MetS）发展相关的风险因素。
共有 1994 名年龄≥35 岁、基线时无 MetS、糖尿病和心血管疾病的参与者接受了 7 年的随访。进行了体格检查、实验室研究和生活方式因素访谈，并根据两个时间点的协调定义定义了 MetS。使用逻辑回归计算比值比（OR）和相应的 95%置信区间（CI）。
MetS 在 27%的受试者中发生，男性和女性的发病率分别为 39.2 和 46.6/1000 人年（P=0.04）。在 MetS 的各组成部分中，仅甘油三酯（TG）（OR 2.59，95%CI 1.78-3.78）或与腰围（WC）联合（OR 5.01，95%CI 3.59-7.01）是预测发生 MetS 的最强指标与无成分者相比。在多变量分析中，除了男性的空腹血糖和女性的高密度脂蛋白胆固醇外，所有成分在两性中均与更高的风险相关。糖耐量受损与女性两倍（95%CI 1.11-3.65）的风险增加相关。女性超重和肥胖的多变量调整 OR（95%CI）分别为 1.68（1.13-2.50）和 2.88（1.73-4.78），男性分别为 2.46（1.74-3.46）和 2.47（1.38-4.43）。不健康的饮食[1.57（1.02-2.41）]和每周饮用可乐[1.50（1.05，2.14）]仅增加了女性的风险。
TG 和 WC 成分对 MetS 发病率具有最高的预测价值，而普通肥胖与 MetS 独立相关。
