Szenczi-Cseh Júlia, Ambrus Árpád
a National Food Chain Safety Office, Directorate for Food Safety Risk Assessment , Budapest , Hungary.
b Retired scientific adviser from National Food Chain Safety Office , Budapest , Hungary.
J Environ Sci Health B. 2017 Sep 2;52(9):658-670. doi: 10.1080/03601234.2017.1331671. Epub 2017 Jul 5.
The sources of quantitative and qualitative uncertainties of the exposure of a consumer to a pesticide residue are identified. The contribution of quantifiable uncertainties of input parameters of deterministic model to the combined uncertainty of the estimated exposure is shown with detailed calculation using the pesticide residue content of food consumed during two days. The daily intakes of bifenthrin residues calculated for the 60 kg bodyweight of the reporting person are 0.00257 mg/kgbw and 0.00281 mg/kgbw for day 1 and day 2, respectively with 27-28% combined uncertainty. The major contributors were fruits and whole meal bread. The contribution of the individual steps to the combined uncertainty depends on the particular food item. In general, the variability of recipes, estimation of the mass of consumed food, sampling, processing of raw commodities and analysis of pesticide residues influenced most, in decreasing order, the combined uncertainty of the estimated daily exposure.
确定了消费者接触农药残留量的定量和定性不确定性来源。通过使用两天内食用食物中的农药残留含量进行详细计算,展示了确定性模型输入参数的可量化不确定性对估计暴露量综合不确定性的贡献。针对报告人的60千克体重计算的第一天和第二天联苯菊酯残留的每日摄入量分别为0.00257毫克/千克体重和0.00281毫克/千克体重,综合不确定性为27 - 28%。主要贡献者是水果和全麦面包。各个步骤对综合不确定性的贡献取决于特定的食物项目。一般来说,食谱的变异性、食用食物质量的估计、采样、原商品加工以及农药残留分析对估计每日暴露量综合不确定性的影响程度依次递减。