Prediction of the requirement of open reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip.

Objective Closed reduction (CR) is a noninvasive treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH), and this treatment is confirmed intraoperatively. This study aimed to develop a preoperative estimation model of the probability of requiring open reduction (OR) for DDH. Methods The study design was cross-sectional by screening all patients younger than 2 years who had attempted CR between October 2012 and July 2016 by a single surgeon. Potential diagnostic determinants were sex, age, side, bilaterality, International Hip Dysplasia Institute (IHDI) grade, and acetabular index (AI). An intraoperative arthrogram was the reference standard. A logistic regression equation was built from a reduced model. Bootstrapping was performed for internal validity. Results A total of 164 hips in 104 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analysed. The prevalence of CR was 72.2%. Independent factors for OR were older age, higher IHDI grade, and lower AI. The probability of OR = 1/[1 + exp - (-2.753 + 0.112 × age (months) + 1.965 × IHDI grade III (0 or 1) + 3.515 × IHDI grade IV (0 or 1) - 0.058 × AI (degrees)]. The area under the curve was 0.79. Conclusion This equation is an objective tool that can be used to estimate the requirement for OR.