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巴西登革热病例的空间分布模式。

Spatial patterns of dengue cases in Brazil.

作者信息

Antonio Fernando Jose, Itami Andreia Silva, de Picoli Sergio, Teixeira Jorge Juarez Vieira, Mendes Renio Dos Santos

机构信息

Departamento Acadêmico de Ciências da Natureza, Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná - Cornélio Procópio, Brazil.

Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, Brazil.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2017 Jul 17;12(7):e0180715. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180715. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Dengue infection plays a central role in our society, since it is the most prevalent vector-borne viral disease affecting humans. We statistically investigated patterns concerning the spatial spreading of dengue epidemics in Brazil, as well as their temporal evolution in all Brazilian municipalities for a period of 12 years. We showed that the distributions of cases in municipalities follow power laws persistent in time and that the infection scales linearly with the population of the municipalities. We also found that the average number of dengue cases does not have a clear dependence on the longitudinal position of municipalities. On the other hand, we found that the average distribution of cases varies with the latitudinal position of municipalities, displaying an almost constant growth from high latitudes until reaching the Tropic of Capricorn leveling to a plateau closer to the Equator. We also characterized the spatial correlation of the number of dengue cases between pairs of municipalities, where our results showed that the spatial correlation function decays with the increase of distance between municipalities, following a power-law with an exponential cut-off. This regime leads to a typical dengue traveling distance. Finally, we considered modeling this last behaviour within the framework of a Edwards-Wilkinson equation with a fractional derivative on space.

摘要

登革热感染在我们的社会中起着核心作用,因为它是影响人类的最普遍的媒介传播病毒性疾病。我们对巴西登革热疫情的空间传播模式以及巴西所有城市12年期间的时间演变进行了统计调查。我们表明,城市中病例的分布随时间遵循幂律,并且感染与城市人口呈线性比例关系。我们还发现,登革热病例的平均数量与城市的纵向位置没有明显的相关性。另一方面,我们发现病例的平均分布随城市的纬度位置而变化,从高纬度到南回归线几乎呈持续增长,在接近赤道处趋于平稳。我们还对城市对之间登革热病例数的空间相关性进行了表征,结果表明空间相关函数随着城市间距离的增加而衰减,遵循带有指数截断的幂律。这种情况导致了典型的登革热传播距离。最后,我们考虑在具有空间分数导数的爱德华兹 - 威尔金森方程框架内对最后这种行为进行建模。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a48f/5513438/ce7367d8bcd5/pone.0180715.g001.jpg

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