Saba Hugo, Vale Vera C, Moret Marcelo A, Miranda José Garcia V
Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brasil.
BMC Public Health. 2014 Oct 18;14:1085. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-1085.
Dengue is a public health problem that presents complexity in its dissemination. The physical means of spreading and the dynamics of the spread between municipalities need to be analyzed to guide effective public policies to combat this problem.
This study uses timing varying graph methods (TVG) to construct a correlation network between occurrences of reported cases of dengue between cities in the state of Bahia-Brazil. The topological network indices of all cities were correlated with dengue incidence using Spearman correlation. A randomization test was used to estimate the significance value of the correlation.
The correlation network presented a complex behavior with a heavy-tail distribution of the network edges weight. The randomization test exhibit a significant correlation (P < 0.0001) between the degree of each municipality in the network and the incidence of dengue in each municipality.
The hypothesis of the existence of a correlation between the occurrences of reported cases of dengue between different municipalities in the state of Bahia was validated. The significant correlation between the node degree and incidence, indicates that municipalities with high incidence are also responsible for the spread of the disease in the state. The method proposed suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategy.
登革热是一个公共卫生问题，其传播具有复杂性。需要分析传播的物理方式以及城市间的传播动态，以指导应对这一问题的有效公共政策。
本研究使用时变图方法（TVG）构建巴西巴伊亚州各城市间登革热报告病例发生情况的相关网络。使用斯皮尔曼相关性分析所有城市的拓扑网络指标与登革热发病率的相关性。采用随机化检验估计相关性的显著性值。
相关网络呈现出复杂行为，网络边权重具有重尾分布。随机化检验表明网络中各城市的度数与各城市登革热发病率之间存在显著相关性（P < 0.0001）。
巴伊亚州不同城市间登革热报告病例发生情况存在相关性这一假设得到验证。节点度数与发病率之间的显著相关性表明，高发病率城市也是该州疾病传播的原因。所提出的方法为流行病学控制策略提供了一种新工具。
