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快速决策和慢速决策对冒险行为的影响。

The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking.

作者信息

Kirchler Michael, Andersson David, Bonn Caroline, Johannesson Magnus, Sørensen Erik Ø, Stefan Matthias, Tinghög Gustav, Västfjäll Daniel

机构信息

Department of Banking and Finance, University of Innsbruck, Universitätsstrasse 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.

Centre for Finance, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Box 600, SE-40530 Göteborg, Sweden.

出版信息

J Risk Uncertain. 2017;54(1):37-59. doi: 10.1007/s11166-017-9252-4. Epub 2017 Jun 7.

Abstract

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.

摘要

我们在涉及1700多名受试者的三个国家的一系列金融冒险实验中,对快速决策和慢速决策进行了实验比较。为了操控快速决策和慢速决策,受试者被随机分配在7秒内做出回应(时间压力),或者在做出回应前等待至少7秒或20秒(时间延迟)。为了控制时间压力和时间延迟对测量噪声的不同影响,我们在随机效用框架内估计噪声和风险偏好的单独参数。我们发现,与时间延迟相比,时间压力会增加对收益的风险厌恶和对损失的冒险行为,这意味着时间压力增加了前景理论的反射效应。收益方面的结果比损失方面的结果更弱且更不稳定。我们发现时间压力和时间延迟在损失厌恶方面没有显著差异(仅在其中一个实验中进行了测试)。时间延迟也比时间压力和无约束决策导致的测量噪声更少,并且似乎是减少实验中噪声的有效方法。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8fa5/5486903/8620c62f293a/11166_2017_9252_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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