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通过近似贝叶斯计算天际线图进行种群统计学推断。

Demographic inference through approximate-Bayesian-computation skyline plots.

作者信息

Navascués Miguel, Leblois Raphaël, Burgarella Concetta

机构信息

CBGP, INRA, CIRAD, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France.

Institut de Biologie Computationnelle, Montpellier, France.

出版信息

PeerJ. 2017 Jul 18;5:e3530. doi: 10.7717/peerj.3530. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

The skyline plot is a graphical representation of historical effective population sizes as a function of time. Past population sizes for these plots are estimated from genetic data, without assumptions on the mathematical function defining the shape of the demographic trajectory. Because of this flexibility in shape, skyline plots can, in principle, provide realistic descriptions of the complex demographic scenarios that occur in natural populations. Currently, demographic estimates needed for skyline plots are estimated using coalescent samplers or a composite likelihood approach. Here, we provide a way to estimate historical effective population sizes using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. We assess its performance using simulated and actual microsatellite datasets. Our method correctly retrieves the signal of contracting, constant and expanding populations, although the graphical shape of the plot is not always an accurate representation of the true demographic trajectory, particularly for recent changes in size and contracting populations. Because of the flexibility of ABC, similar approaches can be extended to other types of data, to multiple populations, or to other parameters that can change through time, such as the migration rate.

摘要

天际线图是历史有效种群大小随时间变化的一种图形表示。这些图的过去种群大小是根据遗传数据估计的,无需对定义种群动态轨迹形状的数学函数做假设。由于形状上的这种灵活性,天际线图原则上可以对自然种群中发生的复杂种群动态情景提供现实的描述。目前,天际线图所需的种群动态估计是使用溯祖采样器或复合似然法进行的。在这里,我们提供了一种使用近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)框架来估计历史有效种群大小的方法。我们使用模拟和实际微卫星数据集评估了它的性能。我们的方法能够正确地检索到种群收缩、稳定和扩张的信号,尽管图的图形形状并不总是真实种群动态轨迹的准确表示,特别是对于近期大小变化和收缩种群而言。由于ABC的灵活性,类似的方法可以扩展到其他类型的数据、多个种群或其他随时间变化的参数,如迁移率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9968/5518730/1e4dbc6a6919/peerj-05-3530-g001.jpg

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