Int J Public Health. 2018 May;63(Suppl 1):123-136. doi: 10.1007/s00038-017-1023-0. Epub 2017 Aug 3.
We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015.
Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight.
In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4-2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2-0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6-36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3-114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6-3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7-6.6) in 2015.
HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance, and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services.
我们利用 2015 年全球疾病负担研究的结果，估计 1990 年至 2015 年期间东地中海区域（EMR）国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病负担的趋势。
采用专门的估计方法来计算死亡率的最终估计值。通过将死亡率乘以人口数乘以年龄特异性预期寿命来计算损失的生命年（YLLs）。通过将后遗症的流行率乘以其残疾权重来计算残疾生活年（YLDs）。
2015 年，EMR 艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡人数为每 100,000 人 1.8（1.4-2.5），比 1990 年增加了 43%（0.3；0.2-0.8）。因此，艾滋病毒/艾滋病造成的 YLLs 率从 1990 年的 15.3（7.6-36.2）/100,000 增加到 2015 年的 81.9（65.3-114.4）。YLDs 率从 1990 年的 1.3（0.6-3.1）增加到 2015 年的 4.4（2.7-6.6）。
自 1990 年以来，EMR 艾滋病毒/艾滋病的发病率和死亡率有所增加。为了扭转这一趋势并实现疫情控制，EMR 国家应加强艾滋病毒监测，并扩大艾滋病毒抗逆转录病毒治疗和综合预防服务。
