Krapivin Vladimir F, Varotsos Costas A, Soldatov Vladimir Yu
Kotelnikov Institute of Radio engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 125009, Russian Federation.
Department of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 157 72, Greece.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Aug 7;14(8):885. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14080885.
This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled "nature-society system (NSS) model", through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.
本文展示了在全球范围内对自然与人类社会之间可持续状态研究所得的结果，重点关注自然过程与人为过程之间最关键的相互作用。除了传统的全球模型外，本文采用的基本工具是新提出的名为“自然 - 社会系统（NSS）模型”的复杂模型，通过该模型可对全球气候 - 自然 - 社会系统（CNSS）中发生的过程进行可靠建模。这个通用工具主要基于信息技术，它能使该模型的参数空间和功能空间实现自适应协调。该模型的结构包括全球生物地球化学循环、水文循环、人口过程和一个简单的气候模型。在这个模型中，生存能力指标被用作人类生存的标准，它定义了生物圈总生物量动态变化的趋势，同时考虑了陆地和水圈生态系统生物复杂性动态变化的趋势。应当强调的是，没有其他复杂的全球模型能与这里开发的CNSS模型相媲美。通过具体例子展示了这个全球模型的潜力，其中通过将4°×5°地理像素的陆地生态系统划分为30种植被 - 土壤类型来完成陆地生态系统的分类。此外，人类被认为由三组经济发展状况（高、转型、发展中）来代表，世界海洋则按三个纬度带（低、中、高）进行参数化。所获得的建模结果显示了23世纪初CNSS的动态变化，据此世界人口在不发生重大负面影响的情况下可达到140亿的水平。
