Department of Applied Mathematics, Virginia Military Institute, Lexington, VA 24450, United States.
Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, United States; Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, United States; The New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM 87544, United States.
Epidemics. 2017 Dec;21:63-79. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.005. Epub 2017 Jul 13.
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.
随着南美和中美洲国家为寨卡病毒爆发导致的出生缺陷增加做准备，并制定了减轻策略以最小化当前和未来的疫情爆发，了解寨卡病毒爆发的重要特征及其在各地区的差异是一个具有挑战性和重要意义的问题。我们针对哥伦比亚、萨尔瓦多和苏里南 2015/2016 年寨卡病毒爆发的动态开发了一个数学模型。我们使用近似贝叶斯计算（Approximate Bayesian Computation）来拟合模型，以公共卫生组织提供的公开数据进行拟合，从而估计参数分布并提供不确定性量化。模型表明，对哥伦比亚进行国家层面的分析并不合适。然后，我们估计萨尔瓦多和苏里南的基本繁殖数在 4 到 6 之间，中位数分别为 4.3 和 5.3。我们估计萨尔瓦多的报告率约为 16%，苏里南的报告率约为 18%，分别估计总爆发人数为 73395 人和 21647 人。参数估计的不确定性突出表明需要进行研究和数据收集，以更好地限制参数范围。
