Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK.
Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jan 1;610-611:678-690. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.062. Epub 2017 Aug 17.
Heatwaves can lead to a range of adverse impacts including increased risk of illness and mortality; the heatwave in August 2003 has been associated with ~70,000 deaths across Europe. Due to climate change, heatwaves are likely to become more intense, more frequent and last longer in the future. A number of factors may influence risks associated with heat exposure, such as population age, housing type, and location within the Urban Heat Island, and such factors may not be evenly distributed spatially across a region. We simulated and analysed two major heatwaves in the UK, in August 2003 and July 2006, to assess spatial vulnerability to heat exposure across the West Midlands, an area containing ~5 million people, and how ambient temperature varies in relation to factors that influence heat-related health effects, through weighting of ambient temperatures according to distributions of these factors across an urban area. Additionally we present quantification of how particular centres such as hospitals are exposed to the UHI, by comparing temperatures at these locations with average temperatures across the region, and presenting these results for both day and night times. We find that UHI intensity was substantial during both heatwaves, reaching a maximum of +9.6°C in Birmingham in July 2006. Previous work has shown some housing types, such as flats and terraced houses, are associated with increased risk of overheating, and our results show that these housing types are generally located within the warmest parts of the city. Older age groups are more susceptible to the effects of heat. Our analysis of distribution of population based on age group showed there is only small spatial variation in ambient temperature that different age groups are exposed to. Analysis of relative deprivation across the region indicates more deprived populations are located in the warmest parts of the city.
热浪可能导致一系列不良影响，包括增加患病和死亡的风险；2003 年 8 月的热浪与欧洲约 7 万人的死亡有关。由于气候变化，未来的热浪可能会更加剧烈、频繁和持久。一些因素可能会影响与热暴露相关的风险，例如人口年龄、住房类型和城市热岛中的位置，而这些因素在一个地区的空间分布可能并不均匀。我们模拟和分析了英国 2003 年 8 月和 2006 年 7 月的两次主要热浪，以评估西米德兰兹地区（约有 500 万人居住）对热暴露的空间脆弱性，以及环境温度如何根据影响与热相关的健康影响的因素而变化，通过根据城市地区这些因素的分布对环境温度进行加权。此外，我们还通过比较这些地点的温度与整个地区的平均温度，来展示特定中心（如医院）如何暴露于城市热岛效应中，并呈现这些结果的昼夜情况。我们发现，在两次热浪中，城市热岛效应都非常强烈，2006 年 7 月伯明翰的最高温度达到了+9.6°C。先前的研究表明，某些住房类型，如公寓和排屋，与过热风险增加有关，我们的结果表明，这些住房类型通常位于城市最温暖的区域。年龄较大的人群更容易受到热的影响。我们基于年龄组的人口分布分析表明，不同年龄组暴露在环境温度中的空间差异很小。该地区的相对贫困分析表明，较贫困的人群位于城市最温暖的区域。
