Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica, via Madonna Alta 126, I-06128 Perugia, Italy.
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica, via Cavour 4/6, I-87036 Rende, CS, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jan 1;610-611:867-879. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.064. Epub 2017 Aug 18.
Floods and landslides are frequent and destructive geo-hydrological hazards that cause harm to people every year. We analysed data on 1292 landslide and 771 flood fatalities that occurred in Italy in the 50-year period 1965-2014, to determine the dependence of the fatalities on gender and age and the circumstances of death by type of hazard. The multinomial probability mass function of the expected fatalities by gender and age, as reported by national census data, were estimated and compared with the observed landslide and flood fatalities. We identified the age categories over or under represented when the observed fatalities were respectively higher or lower than the modelled expected deaths. We found that in Italy males are more vulnerable to floods and landslides for most of the age categories. Apart from children, males are over-represented up to the age of 89 for floods and up to 79 for landslides, whereas females are under-represented up to the age of 59 for floods and landslides, and over-represented above 70 for floods and between 60 and 79 for landslides. To consider the demographic and socio-cultural changes over time, we performed a temporal analysis splitting the record into two non-overlapping subsets of 25year each. The analysis demonstrated that the over-representation of males compared to the females, both for landslide and flood is statistically significant and does not vary in time, indicating a different propensity towards the risk taking and a different degree of exposure between males and females. Analysis of the data allowed to identify the common circumstances of death. Landslides fatalities occurred frequently indoor, whereas the majority of the flood fatalities occurred outdoor, outlining the different dynamics of the hazards. Floods killed numerous people along roads and drivers or passengers travelling in vehicles. We expect that the results of this work will be helpful to design recommendations for self-protecting actions, and proactive policies that can contribute to reduce the human toll of floods and landslides in Italy, and elsewhere.
洪水和山体滑坡是频繁且具有破坏性的地质水文灾害，每年都会给人们带来伤害。我们分析了 1965 年至 2014 年 50 年间意大利发生的 1292 起山体滑坡和 771 起洪水死亡事件的数据，以确定死亡人数与性别和年龄的关系，并按灾害类型确定死亡原因。根据全国人口普查数据，我们对按性别和年龄分类的预期死亡人数的多项概率质量函数进行了估计，并将其与观察到的山体滑坡和洪水死亡人数进行了比较。我们确定了观察到的死亡人数高于或低于模型预期死亡人数时年龄组的代表性过高或过低的情况。我们发现，在意大利，大多数年龄段的男性比女性更容易受到洪水和山体滑坡的影响。除了儿童之外，在洪水方面，男性的死亡人数在 89 岁以下的比例过高，而在山体滑坡方面，男性的死亡人数在 79 岁以下的比例过高，而女性的死亡人数在 59 岁以下的比例过低，在 70 岁以上的比例过高，在 60 岁至 79 岁之间的比例过高。为了考虑随时间推移的人口和社会文化变化，我们将记录分为两个不重叠的 25 年子集进行了时间分析。分析表明，男性与女性相比，无论是在山体滑坡还是在洪水方面，男性的代表性过高，且在时间上没有变化，这表明男性和女性在冒险倾向和暴露程度上存在差异。对数据的分析能够确定常见的死亡情况。山体滑坡的死亡事件经常发生在室内，而大多数洪水死亡事件发生在户外，这突显了两种灾害的不同动态。洪水导致许多人在道路上以及在车辆中行驶的司机或乘客死亡。我们希望这项工作的结果将有助于制定自我保护行动和积极主动的政策建议，从而减少意大利乃至其他地区洪水和山体滑坡造成的人员伤亡。
