Strayer David L, D'Antonio Carla M, Essl Franz, Fowler Mike S, Geist Juergen, Hilt Sabine, Jarić Ivan, Jöhnk Klaus, Jones Clive G, Lambin Xavier, Latzka Alexander W, Pergl Jan, Pyšek Petr, Robertson Peter, von Schmalensee Menja, Stefansson Robert A, Wright Justin, Jeschke Jonathan M
Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, USA.
Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Ecol Lett. 2017 Oct;20(10):1337-1350. doi: 10.1111/ele.12822. Epub 2017 Aug 17.
Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.
繁荣-衰退动态——种群数量增长至爆发水平，随后急剧下降——一直与生物入侵相关联，并被用作不对麻烦的入侵物种进行管理的一个理由。然而，繁荣-衰退动态很少得到严格定义、分析或解释。在此，我们定义了繁荣-衰退动态，并为改进繁荣-衰退概念的应用提供了具体建议。繁荣-衰退动态可能由多种原因引起，有些与入侵密切相关，但其他原因则出现在广泛的生态环境中，尤其是当环境条件迅速变化时。因此，仅仅通过观察动态很难推断原因或预测未来轨迹。我们使用模拟数据测试表明，一种用于检测和描述繁荣-衰退动态的常用指标，即从观察到的峰值下降到随后的谷底，往往会严重高估衰退的频率和严重程度，即便使用也应谨慎。我们回顾并测试了其他更适合描述繁荣-衰退动态的指标。理解繁荣-衰退动态的频率和重要性需要对大型、有代表性的长期数据集进行实证研究，这些研究要使用对繁荣-衰退的明确定义、合适的分析方法并进行仔细解读。
