College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, 712100, China.
Western Development Research Center, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, 712100, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 25;7(1):9532. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-09669-1.
Although enhancing resilience is a well-recognized adaptation to climate change, little research has been undertaken on the dynamics of resilience. This occurs because complex relationships exist between adaptive capacity and resilience, and some issues also create challenges related to the construction, operation, and application of resilience. This study identified the dynamics of temporal, spatial changes of resilience found in a sample of wheat-drought resilience in Australia's wheat-sheep production zone during 1991-2010. I estimated resilience using principal component analysis, mapped resilience and its components, distinguished resilient and sensitive regions, and provided recommendations related to improving resilience. I frame that resilience is composed of social resilience including on- and off-site adaptive capacity as well as biophysical resilience including resistance and absorption. I found that resilience and its components have different temporal trends, spatial shifts and growth ratios in each region during different years, which results from complicated interactions, such as complementation and substitution among its components. In wheat-sheep zones, I recommend that identifying regional bottlenecks, science-policy engagement, and managing resilience components are the priorities for improving resilience.
尽管增强弹性是适应气候变化的一种公认方法，但对弹性的动态变化的研究却很少。这是因为适应能力和弹性之间存在复杂的关系，而且一些问题也给弹性的构建、运作和应用带来了挑战。本研究确定了澳大利亚小麦-绵羊生产区 1991-2010 年间小麦抗旱弹性样本中弹性的时间、空间变化动态。我使用主成分分析来估计弹性，绘制了弹性及其组成部分的地图，区分了有弹性和敏感的地区，并提出了与提高弹性相关的建议。我认为，弹性由社会弹性组成，包括现场和场外适应能力，以及生物物理弹性，包括抵抗力和吸收力。我发现，在不同的年份，每个地区的弹性及其组成部分在不同时期都有不同的时间趋势、空间转移和增长率，这是由于其组成部分之间的复杂相互作用，如互补和替代。在小麦-绵羊区，我建议确定区域瓶颈、科学政策参与以及管理弹性组成部分是提高弹性的优先事项。
