Husain Muhammad Jami, Khondker Bazlul Haque
Economist at the Global Tobacco Control Branch, Office on Smoking and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Professor of Economics, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Margin J Appl Econ Res. 2016;10(1):55-85. doi: 10.1177/0973801015612665. Epub 2016 Feb 1.
In Bangladesh, where tobacco use is pervasive, reducing tobacco use is economically beneficial. This paper uses the latest Bangladesh social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model to quantify the economy-wide impact of demand-driven changes in tobacco cultivation, bidi industries, and cigarette industries. First, we compute various income multiplier values (i.e. backward linkages) for all production activities in the economy to quantify the impact of changes in demand for the corresponding products on gross output for 86 activities, demand for 86 commodities, returns to four factors of production, and income for eight household groups. Next, we rank tobacco production activities by income multiplier values relative to other sectors. Finally, we present three hypothetical 'tobacco-free economy' scenarios by diverting demand from tobacco products into other sectors of the economy and quantifying the economy-wide impact. The simulation exercises with three different tobacco-free scenarios show that, compared to the baseline values, total sectoral output increases by 0.92%, 1.3%, and 0.75%. The corresponding increases in the total factor returns (i.e. GDP) are 1.57%, 1.75%, and 1.75%. Similarly, total household income increases by 1.40%, 1.58%, and 1.55%.
在烟草使用十分普遍的孟加拉国，减少烟草使用在经济上是有益的。本文运用最新的孟加拉国社会核算矩阵（SAM）乘数模型，来量化烟草种植、比迪烟产业和卷烟产业中需求驱动型变化对整个经济的影响。首先，我们计算经济中所有生产活动的各种收入乘数（即后向联系）值，以量化86种活动的总产出、86种商品的需求、四种生产要素的回报以及八个家庭群体的收入因相应产品需求变化所受到的影响。接下来，我们根据收入乘数相对于其他部门的值对烟草生产活动进行排名。最后，我们通过将烟草产品需求转移到经济的其他部门并量化对整个经济的影响，提出三种假设的“无烟经济”情景。三种不同无烟情景的模拟结果表明，与基准值相比，部门总产出分别增长0.92%、1.3%和0.75%。总要素回报（即国内生产总值）相应增长1.57%、1.75%和1.75%。同样，家庭总收入分别增长1.40%、1.58%和1.55%。
