Center for Indonesia's Strategic Development Initiatives, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Monash Business School Centre for Health Economics, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Tob Control. 2024 Jun 4;33(Suppl 2):s108-s114. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057735.
A significant tobacco tax increase has long been advocated to reduce Indonesia's high smoking prevalence. However, implementing such a policy remains challenging due to the tobacco industry's argument that it would negatively impact the economy.
This study aims to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net impact of tobacco taxation on Indonesia's economy.
The impact of the tax hike on the economy is simulated through a change in cigarette demand and reallocation of household's budget and allocation government spending from additional tobacco tax revenue. Input-output analysis is employed to estimate the net effect of the tobacco tax rise on the total economic output, income and employment in Indonesia.
Increasing the tobacco tax would generate a net positive impact on the economy as it would increase economic output, household income and employment. The positive impact is mainly driven by government spending from additional revenue from increased tobacco taxes. Spending tax revenue using the current structure of government spending has the potential to generate the optimal economic effect. Increasing tobacco tax by 45% from the 2019 tax level would increase economic output, household income and employment by Rp84.2 trillion, Rp24.1 trillion and 400.3 thousand jobs, respectively.
长期以来，印尼一直主张大幅提高烟草税，以降低该国居高不下的吸烟率。然而，由于烟草业声称这将对经济产生负面影响，因此实施这样的政策仍然具有挑战性。
本研究旨在全面估计烟草税对印度尼西亚经济的净影响。
通过改变香烟需求以及家庭预算的重新分配和政府从额外烟草税收中支出的重新分配来模拟增税对经济的影响。投入产出分析用于估计烟草税上涨对印度尼西亚总经济产出、收入和就业的净影响。
提高烟草税将对经济产生净积极影响，因为它将增加经济产出、家庭收入和就业。积极影响主要是由政府从增加的烟草税收入中支出推动的。按照现行政府支出结构使用税收收入有潜力产生最佳的经济效果。将烟草税从 2019 年的税率提高 45%，将分别使经济产出、家庭收入和就业增加 84.2 万亿卢比、24.1 万亿卢比和 40.03 万个工作岗位。
