Social policy and development centre, Karachi, Pakistan
Social policy and development centre, Karachi, Pakistan.
Tob Control. 2020 Nov;29(Suppl 5):s337-s343. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055257. Epub 2020 Nov 6.
Pakistan has a large population of tobacco users, with about 24 million adults consuming tobacco products in one form or another. There is a dearth of research on the impact of a reduction in tobacco use on Pakistan's economy which can inform policy-makers on the extent that tobacco control measures would affect macroeconomic indicators such as output and employment.
The objective of this study is to quantify the changes in output, income and employment resulting from changes in cigarette consumption and to quantify the impact of such changes on the overall economy.
The study uses the input-output table for the fiscal year 2010-2011 for Pakistan's economy, to estimate the output, income and employment multipliers. The Leontief input-output model is used to estimate the sectorwise multiplier effects. It estimates direct, indirect and consumption-induced effects of changes in tobacco use on the economy.
The cigarette industry's share in large-scale manufacturing and industrial employment is 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The estimates of gross output, income and employment multipliers for the cigarette industry have relatively small magnitudes indicating minimal impact on the economy. A simulation analysis based on the latest estimates of price elasticity of cigarette and input-output multipliers, shows that a 10% increase in price will lead to an 11% reduction in cigarette consumption, which translates into annual savings of Pakistani Rupees (Rs) 16 billion by households. Reduction in cigarette consumption will allow individuals to spend their savings on other commodities. For example, spending this amount on food items will lead to a net increase of Rs 40 billion annual output of the economy.
Reduction in tobacco consumption will lead to initial losses to the economy but there will be considerable gains in output, employment and income due to redistribution of tobacco expenditures.
巴基斯坦拥有庞大的烟民群体，约有 2400 万成年人以某种形式消费烟草制品。关于减少烟草使用对巴基斯坦经济的影响的研究甚少，无法为决策者提供有关控制烟草措施将在多大程度上影响产出和就业等宏观经济指标的信息。
本研究旨在量化吸烟减少对产出、收入和就业的影响，并量化这种变化对整体经济的影响。
本研究使用了 2010-2011 财年巴基斯坦经济的投入产出表来估算产出、收入和就业乘数。采用里昂惕夫投入产出模型来估算各部门的乘数效应。它估计了烟草使用变化对经济的直接、间接和消费诱发影响。
卷烟行业在大规模制造业和工业就业中的份额分别为 1.1%和 0.3%。卷烟行业的总产出、收入和就业乘数的估计值相对较小，表明对经济的影响极小。基于最近对卷烟价格弹性和投入产出乘数的估计，模拟分析表明，价格上涨 10%将导致卷烟消费减少 11%，这意味着家庭每年节省 160 亿巴基斯坦卢比（Rs）。减少卷烟消费将使个人能够将储蓄用于其他商品。例如，将这笔钱用于食品，将使经济的年度产出增加 400 亿卢比。
减少烟草消费最初会给经济带来损失，但由于烟草支出的重新分配，产出、就业和收入将会有相当大的增长。
