Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Hamburg, Germany.
Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jan 15;612:1132-1140. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.289. Epub 2017 Sep 8.
Marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures. Cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) are needed to inform environmental policy and guide ecosystem-based management. Yet, CEAs are inherently complex and seldom linked to real-world management processes. Therefore we propose entrenching CEAs in a risk management process, comprising the steps of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. We provide guidance to operationalize a risk-based approach to CEAs by describing for each step guiding principles and desired outcomes, scientific challenges and practical solutions. We reviewed the treatment of uncertainty in CEAs and the contribution of different tools and data sources to the implementation of a risk based approach to CEAs. We show that a risk-based approach to CEAs decreases complexity, allows for the transparent treatment of uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface. Hence, its adoption can help bridging the gap between science and decision-making in ecosystem-based management.
海洋生态系统正日益受到多种人为压力的累积影响的威胁。需要进行累积影响评估（CEA），以便为环境政策提供信息并指导基于生态系统的管理。然而，CEA 本质上很复杂，很少与现实世界的管理过程联系起来。因此，我们建议将 CEA 嵌入风险管理过程中，包括风险识别、风险分析和风险评估三个步骤。我们通过描述每个步骤的指导原则和预期结果、科学挑战和实际解决方案，为实施基于风险的 CEA 方法提供了操作指南。我们回顾了 CEA 中不确定性的处理以及不同工具和数据源对实施基于风险的 CEA 方法的贡献。我们表明，基于风险的 CEA 方法可降低复杂性，允许透明处理不确定性，并简化将科学成果纳入科学政策接口的过程。因此，采用这种方法有助于缩小基于生态系统的管理中科学与决策之间的差距。
