Steenbeek Jeroen, Buszowski Joe, Chagaris David, Christensen Villy, Coll Marta, Fulton Elizabeth A, Katsanevakis Stelios, Lewis Kristy A, Mazaris Antonios D, Macias Diego, de Mutsert Kim, Oldford Greig, Pennino Maria Grazia, Piroddi Chiara, Romagnoni Giovanni, Serpetti Natalia, Shin Yunne-Jai, Spence Michael A, Stelzenmüller Vanessa
Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain.
University of Florida, Cedar Key, FL, USA.
Environ Model Softw. 2021 Nov;145:105209. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105209.
Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.
海洋生态系统模型（MEMs）能让人们更深入地理解海洋生态系统动态。联合国海洋科学促进可持续发展十年强调了部署这些复杂的机制性时空模型的必要性，以便让政策制定者和社会参与到有关可持续管理海洋的对话中来。从我们共同的角度来看，MEMs仍未得到充分利用，因为它们仍缺乏正式的验证、校准和不确定性量化，这削弱了它们在政策领域的可信度和接受度。我们探讨了这些缺点存在的原因以及如何使全球建模界提高MEMs的实用性。我们发现，在评估模型技能、不确定性和可信度的拟议解决方案与其实际系统部署之间存在明显差距。我们将这一差距归因于生态系统建模文献基本忽略的一个潜在因素：技术问题。我们最后提出了一个具有成本效益、可扩展且简单的概念性解决方案，因为复杂的时空海洋生态系统建模已经足够复杂了。
