Stout R W, Crawford V
Department of Geriatric Medicine, Queen's University of Belfast.
Lancet. 1988 Feb 6;1(8580):281-3. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(88)90359-5.
To determine whether medical advances will result in an increasing number of dependent elderly people, or whether postponement of disability in a finite lifespan will lead to a decrease in terminal dependency, an analysis was made of 24,117 admissions to a geriatric unit from 1954 to 1986. During this period, the average age on admission for long-term care rose by 0.24 years per year for women and by 0.09 years per year for men. The median length of stay also increased, more for women than for men, as did the proportion of the total lifespan spent in long-term care. Active-life expectancy became longer and terminal dependency was postponed, but the duration of terminal dependency increased. Active-life expectancy increased more rapidly in women than in men, as did the length of terminal dependency. As life expectancy continues to increase, high priority will have to be given to reduction of disability and dependency in advanced old age.
为了确定医学进步是否会导致需要照料的老年人数量增加，或者在有限的寿命期限内残疾的推迟是否会导致临终时需要照料的情况减少，我们对1954年至1986年期间老年病房的24117例入院病例进行了分析。在此期间，接受长期护理的女性入院平均年龄每年上升0.24岁，男性每年上升0.09岁。住院时间中位数也有所增加，女性增加的幅度大于男性，在长期护理中度过的总寿命比例也是如此。健康期望寿命变长，临终时需要照料的情况被推迟，但临终时需要照料的持续时间增加了。女性的健康期望寿命比男性增加得更快，临终时需要照料的时间长度也是如此。随着预期寿命的持续增加，必须高度重视减少高龄时的残疾和需要照料的情况。
