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2012年至2020年比利时沙门氏菌病、弯曲杆菌病和李斯特菌病负担：一项时间序列分析

Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020.

作者信息

Maertens de Noordhout Charline, Devleesschauwer Brecht, Haagsma Juanita A, Havelaar Arie H, Bertrand Sophie, Vandenberg Olivier, Quoilin Sophie, Brandt Patrick T, Speybroeck Niko

机构信息

Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.

Department of Public Health and Surveillance, Scientific Institute of Public Health (WIV-ISP), Brussels, Belgium.

出版信息

Euro Surveill. 2017 Sep 21;22(38). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.38.30615.

DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.38.30615
PMID:28935025
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5709949/
Abstract

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192-226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

摘要

沙门氏菌病、弯曲杆菌病和李斯特菌病都是食源性疾病。我们估计并预测了2012年至2020年比利时这三种疾病的病例数，并计算了相应的伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。沙门氏菌病时间序列采用白和佩龙双断点模型拟合，弯曲杆菌病采用动态线性模型，李斯特菌病采用泊松自回归模型。2012年沙门氏菌病的月均病例数为264例（标准差（SD）：86），预计2020年为212例（SD：87）；弯曲杆菌病病例数分别为633例（SD：81）和1081例（SD：311）；2012年李斯特菌病病例数为5例（SD：2），2014年为6例（SD：3）。应用校正因子后，2012年沙门氏菌病的估计伤残调整生命年为102（95%不确定区间（UI）：8 - 376），预计2020年为82（95% UI：6 - 310）；弯曲杆菌病伤残调整生命年分别为1019（95% UI：137 - 3181）和1736（95% UI：178 - 5874）；2012年李斯特菌病伤残调整生命年为208（95% UI：192 - 226），2014年为252（95% UI：200 - 307）。需要采取新的行动来降低弯曲杆菌属食源性感染风险，因为到2020年弯曲杆菌病发病率可能几乎翻倍。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/61c7/5709949/890e0910ec5e/16-00401-f7.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/61c7/5709949/890e0910ec5e/16-00401-f7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/61c7/5709949/4b321731f97f/16-00401-f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/61c7/5709949/b034b2b96686/16-00401-f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/61c7/5709949/72ae4550c82f/16-00401-f3.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/61c7/5709949/890e0910ec5e/16-00401-f7.jpg

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