Skaug Hans J
University of Bergen, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
Theor Popul Biol. 2017 Dec;118:20-26. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2017.09.001. Epub 2017 Sep 22.
We consider two individuals sampled from an age-structured population, and derive the probability that these have a parent-offspring relationship. Such probabilities play an important role in the recently proposed close-kin mark-recapture methods. The probability is decomposed into three terms. The first is the probability of the parent being alive, the second term involves the mechanism by which individuals are sampled, and the third term is a contribution from the observed age of the parent. A stable age distribution in the population is assumed, and we provide an expression for how this distribution is perturbed by the information that an individual has given birth at a particular time point in the past or in the future. Calculations are performed from the perspective of the offspring, but we also make comparison to the situation where the perspective is put on the parent. Although the resulting probabilities are the same, the actual calculations differ, due to the asymmetry of a parent-offspring relationship.
我们考虑从一个年龄结构种群中抽取的两个个体，并推导出它们具有亲子关系的概率。这类概率在最近提出的近亲标记重捕法中起着重要作用。该概率被分解为三项。第一项是亲本存活的概率，第二项涉及个体被抽样的机制，第三项是来自亲本观测年龄的贡献。假设种群具有稳定的年龄分布，并且我们给出了一个表达式，用于说明该分布是如何受到个体在过去或未来特定时间点生育这一信息的扰动。计算是从子代的角度进行的，但我们也将其与从亲本角度出发的情况进行了比较。尽管得到的概率相同，但由于亲子关系的不对称性，实际计算有所不同。
