Akita Tetsuya
Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency National Research Institute of Fisheries Science Yokohama Japan.
Ecol Evol. 2020 Sep 23;10(19):10343-10352. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6421. eCollection 2020 Oct.
This study develops a nearly unbiased estimator of the ratio of the contemporary effective mother size to the census size in a population, as a proxy of the ratio of contemporary effective size (or effective breeding size) to census size ( / or /). The proposed estimator is based on both known mother-offspring (MO) and maternal-sibling (MS) relationships observed within the same cohort, in which sampled individuals in the cohort probably share MO relationships with sampled mothers. The rationale is that the frequency of MO and MS pairs contains information regarding the contemporary effective mother size and the (mature) census size, respectively. Therefore, the estimator can be obtained only from genetic data. We also evaluate the performance of the estimator by running an individual-based model. The results of this study provide the following: (a) parameter range for satisfying the unbiasedness, and (b) guidance for sample sizes to ensure the required accuracy and precision, especially when the order of the ratio is available. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the usefulness of a sibship assignment method for genetic monitoring, providing insights for interpreting environmental and/or anthropological factors fluctuating / (or /), especially in the context of conservation biology and wildlife management.
本研究开发了一种近乎无偏的估计量，用于估计种群中当代有效母本规模与普查规模的比率，以此作为当代有效规模（或有效繁殖规模）与普查规模比率的代理指标（//）。所提出的估计量基于在同一队列中观察到的已知母- 子（MO）和母- 同胞（MS）关系，其中队列中的抽样个体可能与抽样母亲存在MO关系。其基本原理是，MO对和MS对的频率分别包含有关当代有效母本规模和（成熟）普查规模的信息。因此，该估计量仅可从遗传数据中获得。我们还通过运行基于个体的模型来评估该估计量的性能。本研究结果如下：（a）满足无偏性的参数范围，以及（b）关于样本量的指导，以确保所需的准确性和精确性，特别是在比率顺序已知的情况下。此外，结果证明了同胞关系分配方法在遗传监测中的有用性，为解释波动的//（或//）环境和/或人类学因素提供了见解，特别是在保护生物学和野生动物管理的背景下。
