Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Feb;24(2):e719-e731. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13869. Epub 2017 Sep 26.
Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.
海洋物种受到气候变化和海洋酸化的影响，但由于物种敏感性、适应能力和暴露于气候危害的差异，它们的脆弱性程度有所不同。由于许多海洋物种的生物和生态属性数据有限，以及评估过程中的固有不确定性，海洋环境中的气候变化脆弱性评估通常集中在少数分类群或地理范围内。由于气候变化已经对海洋生物多样性和渔业产生影响，因此迫切需要扩大脆弱性评估范围，以涵盖大量物种和地区。在这里，我们开发了一种建模方法，用于综合物种特异性暴露以及生态和生物特征数据，以评估气候变化（包括海洋酸化）对全球海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物的脆弱性（敏感性和适应能力）和影响风险（将暴露于危害和脆弱性相结合）。我们使用模糊逻辑方法来适应数据可用性的可变性以及从气候预测和物种特征推断脆弱性水平的不确定性。应用该方法来估计全球 1074 种受捕捞影响的海洋物种的气候变化相对脆弱性和影响风险，我们估计它们的脆弱性指数和影响风险指数平均值分别为 52±19 标准差和 66±11 标准差，范围从 1 到 100，其中 100 分别是最脆弱和风险最高的，在“照常营业”温室气体排放情景（代表性浓度路径 8.5）下。我们确定了 157 个物种为高度脆弱，而 294 个物种被确定为受到高影响的风险。最脆弱的物种往往是大型特有物种。本研究表明，模糊逻辑框架可以帮助使用公开和现成的信息来估计受捕捞海洋物种的气候脆弱性和风险。
