Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico.
Investigadora por México-CONACyT, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Ciudad de México, Mexico.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Dec;28(23):6992-7008. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16411. Epub 2022 Sep 13.
There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores-granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body-sized groups, large-sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High-risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.
需要修订用于预测气候变化 (CC) 和土地利用/覆盖变化 (LUCC) 情景下物种风险的框架。我们使用最新的政府间气候变化专门委员会框架构建了一个 CC 风险指数，其中风险是脆弱性 (敏感性和适应能力)、暴露和危害的函数。我们将未来的 LUCC 情景纳入暴露成分。我们将基于物种生物学特征的特征方法与基于生态位建模的相关方法相结合，为在墨西哥发生的陆地哺乳动物的物种、分类 (目) 和功能 (营养、体型和运动方式) 组分配风险评分。我们确定了 15 个预计会失去气候适宜性的物种。在 11 个分类目中，Eulipotyphla、Didelphimorphia、Artiodactyla 和 Lagomorpha 的风险评分最高。在 19 个营养组中，食鱼者、树冠下的食虫者、果食者-草食者、食草者和食蚁兽的风险评分最高。在五个体型组中，大型物种 (>15 公斤) 的风险评分最高。在七个运动方式组中，树栖和半水生动物的风险评分最高。在有限的完全扩散假设下，CC 和 LUCC 情景将物种潜在分布的适宜区域减少了 37.5%(仅 CC)，减少了 51%(CC 和 LUCC)。在非扩散假设下，物种潜在分布的适宜区域减少到 50.2%(仅 CC)和 52.4%(CC 和 LUCC)。物种丰富区 (>75%的物种) 的适宜性预计将减少 36%(仅 CC)和 57%(CC 和 LUCC)在 2070 年。在东北部和东南部墨西哥，物种丰富区的气候适宜性预测变化增加了物种数量，而在西北部和南部墨西哥，物种数量减少，表明物种更替非常重要。未来 CC 和 LUCC 情景下物种、分类和功能组多样性以及陆地哺乳动物丰富区的高风险预测突出了对生物多样性和生态系统功能的不同影响的趋势。
