Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i, United States of America.
National Geographic Society Exploration Technology Lab, Washington, DC, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Jul 8;17(7):e0270930. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270930. eCollection 2022.
Our changing climate poses growing challenges for effective management of marine life, ocean ecosystems, and human communities. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change, and where should management focus efforts to reduce these risks? To address these questions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Climate Science Strategy called for vulnerability assessments in each of NOAA's ocean regions. The Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment (PIVA) project assessed the susceptibility of 83 marine species to the impacts of climate change projected to 2055. In a standard Rapid Vulnerability Assessment framework, this project applied expert knowledge, literature review, and climate projection models to synthesize the best available science towards answering these questions. Here we: (1) provide a relative climate vulnerability ranking across species; (2) identify key attributes and factors that drive vulnerability; and (3) identify critical data gaps in understanding climate change impacts to marine life. The invertebrate group was ranked most vulnerable and pelagic and coastal groups not associated with coral reefs were ranked least vulnerable. Sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and oxygen concentration were the main exposure drivers of vulnerability. Early Life History Survival and Settlement Requirements was the most data deficient of the sensitivity attributes considered in the assessment. The sensitivity of many coral reef fishes ranged between Low and Moderate, which is likely underestimated given that reef species depend on a biogenic habitat that is extremely threatened by climate change. The standard assessment methodology originally developed in the Northeast US, did not capture the additional complexity of the Pacific region, such as the diversity, varied horizontal and vertical distributions, extent of coral reef habitats, the degree of dependence on vulnerable habitat, and wide range of taxa, including data-poor species. Within these limitations, this project identified research needs to sustain marine life in a changing climate.
我们不断变化的气候给海洋生物、海洋生态系统和人类社区的有效管理带来了越来越多的挑战。哪些物种最容易受到气候变化的影响，管理工作应该在哪里集中精力降低这些风险？为了回答这些问题，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）渔业气候科学战略要求在 NOAA 的每个海洋区域进行脆弱性评估。太平洋岛屿脆弱性评估（PIVA）项目评估了 83 种海洋物种对到 2055 年预计的气候变化影响的易感性。在标准的快速脆弱性评估框架中，该项目应用专家知识、文献综述和气候预测模型，综合了最佳的现有科学知识，以回答这些问题。在这里，我们：（1）对物种进行相对气候脆弱性排名；（2）确定导致脆弱性的关键属性和因素；（3）确定在理解气候变化对海洋生物的影响方面的关键数据差距。无脊椎动物组被评为最脆弱的组，与珊瑚礁无关的浮游生物和沿海组被评为最不脆弱的组。海面温度、海洋酸化和氧气浓度是脆弱性的主要暴露驱动因素。生命早期生存和定居要求是评估中考虑的敏感性属性中最缺乏数据的。许多珊瑚礁鱼类的敏感性介于低和中度之间，考虑到珊瑚物种依赖于一个由气候变化严重威胁的生物栖息地，这很可能被低估了。最初在美国东北部开发的标准评估方法并没有捕捉到太平洋地区的额外复杂性，例如多样性、不同的水平和垂直分布、珊瑚礁栖息地的范围、对脆弱栖息地的依赖程度以及广泛的分类群，包括数据匮乏的物种。在这些限制内，该项目确定了维持海洋生物在不断变化的气候中的研究需求。
