The University of Queensland, School of Population Health,Herston, QLD,Australia.
Department of Paediatrics,Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences,The University of Melbourne,Parkville,VIC,Australia.
Psychol Med. 2018 Jan;48(1):23-32. doi: 10.1017/S0033291717000654. Epub 2017 Sep 28.
We aimed to describe the natural history of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and associated harms from adolescence to young adulthood in a large Australian population cohort study.
The Australian Temperament Project consists of mothers and babies (4-8 months) recruited from Infant Welfare Centres and followed every 2 to 4 years until age 28 years. Analyses were based on data from 1156 young people (497 male; 659 female) surveyed repeatedly at ages 16, 18, 20, 24 and 28 years. We used dual processes latent class growth analysis to estimate trajectories of HED and associated harms, employing a piecewise approach to model the hypothesized rise and subsequent fall across adolescence and the late twenties, respectively.
We identified four sex-specific trajectories and observed little evidence of maturing-out across the twenties. In males, a normative pattern of increasing HED across the twenties with little related harm was observed (40% of the male sample). Early and late starter groups that peaked in harms at age 20 years with only minor attenuation in binging thereafter were also observed (6.1% and 35%, respectively). In females, a normative pattern of increasing, but moderate, HED with little related harm was observed (44% of the female sample). Early and late starter groups were also identified (18% and 17%, respectively); however, unlike males, the female late starter group showed a pattern of increasing HED and related harms.
Continued patterns of risky alcohol use and related harms are apparent for both males and females across the twenties.
本研究旨在描述澳大利亚大型人群队列研究中，青少年至成年早期重度间断性饮酒（HED）的自然史及其相关危害。
澳大利亚气质研究（Australian Temperament Project）纳入了来自婴儿福利中心的母亲和婴儿（4-8 个月），并在婴儿 2 至 4 岁时进行随访，直至 28 岁。分析基于在 16、18、20、24 和 28 岁时接受多次调查的 1156 名年轻人（497 名男性；659 名女性）的数据。我们使用双过程潜类别增长分析来估计 HED 及相关危害的轨迹，采用分段方法分别对青春期和二十多岁的假设上升和随后下降进行建模。
我们确定了四个性别特异性轨迹，在二十多岁时几乎没有成熟度的证据。在男性中，观察到二十多岁时 HED 逐渐增加但危害较小的正常模式（40%的男性样本）。还观察到早期和晚期开始者组，他们在 20 岁时达到危害峰值，此后仅略有减少（分别为 6.1%和 35%）。在女性中，观察到 HED 逐渐增加但危害较小的正常模式（44%的女性样本）。也确定了早期和晚期开始者组（分别为 18%和 17%）；然而，与男性不同，女性晚期开始者组显示出 HED 增加和相关危害的模式。
在二十多岁的男性和女性中，持续存在的危险饮酒模式和相关危害仍然明显。
