Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: persistence in a completely heterogeneous environment.

We investigate the persistence of a mosquito-borne disease (malaria) in a system where mosquitoes and hosts are grouped in patches containing any number of individuals. A mosquito from any one of vector patches can bite, and take blood meals, in any one of m host patches. We confirm our earlier result (C. Dye and G. Hasibeder, 1986, Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 80, 69-77) that nonhomogeneous host selection by mosquitoes leads to basic reproductive rates (which measure the persistence of infection in the system) greater than or equal to those obtained under uniform host selection. We find, in addition, that strong associations between particular groups of mosquitoes and hosts lead to still higher basic reproductive rates. Exacting fieldwork would be required to find out how much higher.