Department of Social and Policy Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom.
Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2019 Jul 18;14(7):e0219736. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219736. eCollection 2019.
The gap between fertility outcomes and fertility ideals is notably higher in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than elsewhere, relating to both under- and overachievement of fertility ideals. We consider the extent to which the relationship between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes is related to educational achievement. Further, we consider if these educational differentials are the same or different in SSA, and thereby consider the extent to which increasing levels of education in SSA may decrease fertility.
We use 227 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) from 58 countries worldwide to look at population- level measures of the mismatch between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes. Population level measures are used to assess whether the correspondence between fertility intentions and achievements differ by level of education. We then look at the individual-level determinants of both under- and overachieving fertility intentions. Data from the most recent DHS in 54 of the original countries is used for the individual level analysis, with five countries excluded due to the most recent available survey being out of date.
An average of 40% of women in SSA underachieve their stated fertility intentions compared to 26% in non-SSA countries. Furthermore, compared to other LMICs, higher levels of education are not related to better correspondence between fertility intentions and outcomes in SSA. In Middle/Western Africa countries, on average, 48% of women with secondary or higher education have fewer children than their ideal, compared to just 24% who have more children than their ideal.
We argue that the phenomenon of underachieving fertility ideals (or unrealized fertility) may be of particular importance for the ongoing fertility transition throughout SSA, especially as more highly educated groups do not appear to be following the patterns observed elsewhere.
撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）的生育结果与生育理想之间的差距明显高于其他地区，这与生育理想的未实现和过度实现有关。我们考虑了生育理想与生育结果之间的关系与教育成就的关系。此外，我们还考虑了这些教育差异在 SSA 是否相同或不同，从而考虑了 SSA 教育水平的提高在多大程度上可能会降低生育率。
我们使用来自全球 58 个国家的 227 次人口与健康调查（DHS），研究人口层面上生育理想与生育结果之间不匹配的程度。人口层面的衡量标准用于评估生育意愿与成就之间的一致性是否因教育水平的不同而有所不同。然后，我们研究了生育意愿不足和过度实现的个体决定因素。使用最初 54 个国家中最新的 DHS 数据进行个体水平分析，由于最新的可用调查已经过时，因此排除了 5 个国家。
SSA 中有平均 40%的女性生育子女数量低于其预期，而非 SSA 国家为 26%。此外，与其他中低收入国家相比，教育程度较高并不意味着 SSA 生育意愿与结果之间的一致性更好。在中/西非国家，平均有 48%接受过中等或高等教育的女性生育的子女数量少于其理想数量，而只有 24%的女性生育的子女数量多于其理想数量。
我们认为，生育理想未实现（或未实现的生育）的现象对于整个 SSA 的正在进行的生育转型可能尤为重要，尤其是因为接受过高等教育的群体似乎并没有遵循其他地区观察到的模式。
