哥伦比亚结直肠癌与红肉及加工肉类的人群归因分数——一项宏观模拟研究
Population attributable fractions for colorectal cancer and red and processed meats in Colombia - a macro-simulation study.
作者信息
de Vries Esther, Quintero Doris C, Henríquez-Mendoza Giana, Herrán Oscar Fernando
机构信息
Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. Bogotá. Colombia.
Grupo de Estudios Epidemiológicos y Salud Pública-FCV. Fundación Cardiovascular de Colombia. Bucaramanga. Colombia.
出版信息
Colomb Med (Cali). 2017 Jun 30;48(2):64-69.
AIM
to estimate the population attributable risk of consumption of red and processed meat for colorectal cancer in Colombia.
METHODS
to model the expected incidence of colorectal cancer in the hypothetical situation of no red and processed meat consumption in Colombia, for the year 2010. A dynamic macrosimulation model, PREVENT 3.01, was used to integrate available cancer incidence, meat consumption prevalence and associated risk data and to evaluate the impact of eliminating red and processed meat from the Colombian diet on national colorectal cancer incidence.
RESULTS
Eliminating consumption of red meat altogether from the Colombian diet resulted in reductions in age-standardized colorectal cancer incidence, translating in reductions of 331 males (PAF 13%) and 297 female cases (PAF 10%). Eliminating processed meats had slightly stronger effects, with decreases of 362 males (PAF 14%) and 388 female cases (PAF 13%).
CONCLUSIONS
A substantial proportion of the burden of colorectal cancer in Colombia can be attributed to the consumption of red and processed meat.
目的
评估哥伦比亚食用红肉和加工肉类导致结直肠癌的人群归因风险。
方法
构建一个动态宏观模拟模型PREVENT 3.01，以模拟2010年哥伦比亚不存在红肉和加工肉类消费的假设情况下结直肠癌的预期发病率。该模型整合了现有的癌症发病率、肉类消费流行率及相关风险数据，以评估从哥伦比亚饮食中消除红肉和加工肉类对全国结直肠癌发病率的影响。
结果
完全从哥伦比亚饮食中消除红肉消费，可使年龄标准化结直肠癌发病率降低，男性减少331例（人群归因分值为13%），女性减少297例（人群归因分值为10%）。消除加工肉类的效果稍强，男性减少362例（人群归因分值为14%），女性减少388例（人群归因分值为13%）。
结论
哥伦比亚相当一部分结直肠癌负担可归因于红肉和加工肉类的消费。
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